Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 2006Benson County, Nelson County, Ramsey County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2006, 8:47 PM CDT for Benson County, Nelson County, Ramsey County, North Dakota. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2006, 8:47 PM CDT (01:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2006, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Benson County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Ramsey County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3327 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 030146
SVRFGF
NDC005-063-071-030230-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0099.060703T0147Z-060703T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
847 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
  NELSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
  SOUTHERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DEVILS LAKE...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  CRARY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE
  SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOYON AT 855 PM CDT
  STUMP LAKE AT 905 PM CDT
  TOLNA AT 915 PM CDT
  PEKIN AT 920 PM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4817 9808 4817 9897 4793 9896 4789 9851
      4773 9843 4777 9800

$$

GV

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 030203
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
903 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

NDC005-063-071-030230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-060703T0230Z/
BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-NELSON ND-
903 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NELSON...SOUTHERN RAMSEY AND EAST CENTRAL BENSON COUNTIES...

AT 902 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF HAMAR...OR 21
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOLNA BY 910 PM CDT
  PEKIN BY 920 PM CDT
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCVILLE BY 930 PM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4817 9808 4817 9897 4793 9896 4789 9851
      4773 9843 4777 9800

$$

GV

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 030231
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

NDC005-063-071-030242-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-060703T0230Z/
BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-NELSON ND-
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NELSON...SOUTHERN RAMSEY AND
EAST CENTRAL BENSON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 930 PM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM WAS NO LONGER SEVERE AND SO THE
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4817 9808 4817 9897 4793 9896 4789 9851
      4773 9843 4777 9800

$$

GV

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:27 PM CDT, 6 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:27 PM CDT, 6 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
227 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU WED)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
LOW SITUATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG CONTINUES TO ROTATE SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE CURRENTLY
NEAR CYWG WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THAT REGION. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT WAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE EVENING
TRAVERSING INTO CENTRAL MN BY EARLY MON AM.

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS STILL IN
DOUBT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DIFFUSE AT BEST...SHOWING UP A BIT STRONGER AT
H85 WHERE I EXPECT STORMS TO BE BASED. THERE IS A 70KT+ JET STREAK
PASSING OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT
LOWER LEVELS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
WITH THE COLUMN STARTING OUT DRY FROM THE SFC TO H5...THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A PART IN DOWNPLAYING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH CAPE VALUES FAILING TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS VALUES BARELY GOING NEGATIVE. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...I DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
(MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
MON AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BY MON AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK PROMOTING RISING HEIGHTS
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM (THURS THRU SUN)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL LATER PERIODS. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AND POTENTIAL CAPPING
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS COME TOGETHER A LITTLE
BETTER. UNTIL THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL MAKE FOR WARM AND DRY PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

JCA/VOELKER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 3:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-032030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CONFINED EAST OF THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JCA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 7:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	38 min
Jul 2, 8:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	48 min
Jul 2, 9:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	39 min
Jul 2, 9:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	57 min
Jul 2, 9:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson	27 min
Jul 2, 9:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.