Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
227 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONITE THRU WED)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
LOW SITUATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG CONTINUES TO ROTATE SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE CURRENTLY
NEAR CYWG WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THAT REGION. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT WAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE EVENING
TRAVERSING INTO CENTRAL MN BY EARLY MON AM.

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS STILL IN
DOUBT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DIFFUSE AT BEST...SHOWING UP A BIT STRONGER AT
H85 WHERE I EXPECT STORMS TO BE BASED. THERE IS A 70KT+ JET STREAK
PASSING OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT
LOWER LEVELS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
WITH THE COLUMN STARTING OUT DRY FROM THE SFC TO H5...THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A PART IN DOWNPLAYING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH CAPE VALUES FAILING TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS VALUES BARELY GOING NEGATIVE. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...I DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
(MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
MON AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BY MON AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK PROMOTING RISING HEIGHTS
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM (THURS THRU SUN)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL LATER PERIODS. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AND POTENTIAL CAPPING
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS COME TOGETHER A LITTLE
BETTER. UNTIL THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL MAKE FOR WARM AND DRY PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

JCA/VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-032030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE CONFINED EAST OF THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JCA