Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 26, 2006Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 26, 2006, 1:44 PM CDT for Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 26, 2006, 1:44 PM CDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired: Jun 26, 2006, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 193 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -138 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1789 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 261845
SVRFGF
MNC135-261930-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0067.060626T1844Z-060626T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
144 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THE
  STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAYES LAKE STATE PARK...OR
  20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* A SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 MILE EAST OF PENCER AT
  132 PM FROM THIS STORM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4882 9539 4864 9581 4856 9537 4872 9537
      4874 9520

$$

TG/ME

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 261908
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
207 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

MNC135-261930-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-060626T1930Z/
ROSEAU MN-
207 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROSEAU COUNTY...

AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CASPERSON...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAYES LAKE STATE PARK BY 215 PM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4870 9575 4856 9589 4856 9537 4872 9537
      4871 9553

$$

TG/ME

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 261922
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
222 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

MNC135-261932-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-060626T1930Z/
ROSEAU MN-
222 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROSEAU COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ROSEAU COUNTY. SO THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
230 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4870 9575 4856 9589 4856 9537 4872 9537
      4871 9553

$$

TG/ME

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 26, 12:46 PM CDT, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 12:46 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE. MODELS HANDLING OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WELL...AND LIKE NAM DEPICTION OF MOISTURE/SHEAR
PROFILES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH ML CAPES TO 1200J/KG...30-
35KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10000FT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INVERTED TYPE V
SIGNATURES...SO WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CELLS.
LCL/S WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS...ALTHOUGH CAN NEVER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
AREAS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW HERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS...WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUILDING IN ABOVE 750MB.

FOR WED AND THU...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TAKING
HOLD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...A DRY PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFIED ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER TIME AND REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS IS INCONSISTENT WITH A SHORT WAVE
COMING OVER THE RIDGE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THUS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY PCPN UNTIL A TREND OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
APPEARS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/BRAMER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 26, 6:38 AM CDT, 7 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

MNZ001-004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054-271145-
WEST POLK-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-
RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-
TRAILL-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL..AND STRONG GUSTING
WINDS...ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY 7PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-
049-052-053-271145-
NORMAN-CLAY-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-
SARGENT-RICHLAND-
638 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ROSEAU...TO HILLSBORO...TO VALLEY CITY. THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL..AND STRONG
GUSTING WINDS...ALONG WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO END BY 9PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 26, 1:33 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
133 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     HAIL             3 NE HILLSBORO          47.43N 97.02W
06/26/2006  E0.75 INCH       TRAILL             ND   PUBLIC

&&

PATRIAYD

Local storm report, Jun 26, 1:38 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
138 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             1 E PENCER              48.70N 95.62W
06/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

&&

BRAMER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 26, 12:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	64 min
Jun 26, 1:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman	65 min
Jun 26, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	58 min
Jun 26, 2:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods	64 min
Jun 26, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall	34 min
Jun 26, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	66 min
Jun 26, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	39 min
Jun 26, 4:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Marshall, Roseau	61 min
Jun 26, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk	63 min
Jun 26, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	25 min
Jun 26, 6:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Norman, Otter Tail	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.