Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
224 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGE INITIALLY WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN HOW WARM WE WILL GET THROUGH THE
FORECAST. NAM ONCE AGAIN DID A GOOD JOB WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS AND INITIALIZING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SO WILL FOLLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY (ML CAPES 2000-2500J/KG) AND DECENT SHEAR (0-6KM BULK 30-35KT)
SHOULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS. THERE ARE ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND FROM THIS MORNINGS ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD ALSO
FOCUS SOME MESOSCALE LIFT. AREAS THAT CAN HEAT OUT INTO THE LOW
90S...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SFC BASED/SEVERE CONVECTION. SHEAR PARAMETERS ACTUALLY WEAKEN AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING...SO SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE INITIALLY
WITH TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE MULTICELL STORMS AND POSSIBLE MCS
MOVING INTO MN THIS EVENING WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP WITH
HIGHS BY SATURDAY TOPPING 100 DEGREES IN ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. SATURDAY SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
AUGUST 7 1983...WHEN GFK HIT 104 AND FARGO HIT 100. 700MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE +15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...AND 850MB TEMPS APPROACH 30C...SO ANY
THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WELL CAPPED EVEN WITH A SFC TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE VERY
WARM...AND HAVE TRENDED THEM UP INTO THE LOW 90S NORTH TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
IF WINDS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH ON SATURDAY...AND DEWPOINTS DROP IN
TO THE 50S...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM
TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MON THROUGH THU)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
SIMILAR...BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE 500MB TROF
MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WITH 700MB TEMPS
QUITE WARM...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. THEN...500MB
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER AREA...WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE EXTENDED. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
521 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
521 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA....WEST OF A VALLEY CITY TO GRAND FORKS TO
HALLOCK LINE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END AFTER 9 PM
TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO
MINNESOTA BY EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLER AIR INVADING AT THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RIDDLE

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