Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 152007
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

NMC013-152300-
DONA ANA NM-
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR DONA
ANA COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS DONA ANA COUNTY WITH 
STRONGEST STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINS NEAR HATCH...ORGAN...WHITE 
SANDS AND RADIUM SPRINGS. OTHER STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS WERE 
APPROACHING THE LAS CRUCES AREA.

FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AROUND HATCH FORCING OVER 100 PEOPLE 
TO BE EVACUATED. HIGHWAYS 26...185 AND 187 AROUND HATCH HAVE ALSO 
BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER 
INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS 25 AND 10.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
...UNIVERSITY PARK...MESILLA...AND DONA ANA

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3182 10724 3181 10677 3205 10669 3203 10640
      3277 10648 3274 10725

$$

ROGASH

000 
WGUS74 KEPZ 152148
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
345 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

NMC013-152300-
DONA ANA NM-
345 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR DONA
ANA COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS DONA ANA COUNTY WITH 
STRONGEST STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINS NEAR MESQUITE...VADO...WHITE 
SANDS MISSILE RANGE AND SANTA TERESA. STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS 
INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES.

FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AROUND HATCH FORCING OVER 150 PEOPLE 
TO BE EVACUATED. HIGHWAYS 26...185 AND 187 AROUND HATCH HAVE ALSO 
BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
...UNIVERSITY PARK...MESILLA...AND DONA ANA

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3182 10724 3181 10677 3205 10669 3203 10640
      3277 10648 3274 10725

$$

ROGASH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1216 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS WHILE A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS OVER A FEW AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NOW ESTABLISHED AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT IF NOT LONGER. DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE HAS TRANSPORTED DEEP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AT
1.6 TODAY. ATTENDANT INSTABILITY ALSO MODERATE WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 TO 2000 J/KG DESPITE CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE WEAK FRONT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAK CLOSED LOW
MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE YET A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,THESE
LIFTING MECHANISM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE PRECLUDES MUCH ENTRAINMENT
WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10 KT INDICATING
SLOW MOVING STORMS. THUS FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST AND HAVE
EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTER WEDNESDAY. WRF EXTENDS STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOISTURE INFLOW DIVERTED WEST
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT. IN CONTRAST GFS
KEEPS THE CWA BETWEEN RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND WEST COAST TROUGH WITH
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED WAVES SUSTAINING HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. AT MOMENT WILL INCREASE THUNDER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WRF HAS BEEN TOO FAST IN DRYING OUR AREA OUT THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  86  68  88  70 /  70  60  50  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        64  77  59  75  63 /  70  60  50  40  40
LAS CRUCES              67  84  68  86  70 /  70  60  50  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  87  67  86  70 /  70  60  50  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              48  66  47  65  49 /  80  70  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  85  67  84  68 /  70  60  50  40  40
SILVER CITY             59  77  60  77  61 /  80  70  50  40  40
DEMING                  66  86  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  86  64  85  66 /  80  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WED NIGHT TXZ 055>056 NMZ 022>025-
030>032

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1040 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
2 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BOTH DAY
AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IF THE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

ROGASH