Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS BACK.  DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
REGION HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT MOIST AIR FROM THE BAJA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO LOSE STRENGTH AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER ELEVATE
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW AND MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MEANS THAT THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE. PLEASE KEEP
ABREAST OF CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
SAFETY IF HEAVY RAIN FALL NEAR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS.  THE ONLY REAL
DIFFERENCES ARE TOWARDS THE END OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. PREVIOUS RUNS
IN THE GFS TRIED HARD TO BUILD THE UPPER HIGH BACK WEST AND SHOVE
THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK WEST BY FRIDAY. CURRENT OFFERING IS BACKING
OFF ON THE DRYING AND KEEPING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
CWFA. IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES...WELL BE ELEVATING FOR LATE WEEK.

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH CENTERED OVER E TEXAS. WE SIT IN A ILL-DEFINED REGION OF THE
UPPER HIGH WITH MANY WEAKNESSES MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT. UPPER
LEVEL LOWERING OF THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL EVENTUALLY PUT US UNDER
A WEAK TROUGH. WELL ALSO BE IN THE ZONE OF S/SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...ALLOWING SHORTWAVES TO TRACK OVER OUR MOIST
AIRMASS BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS ANALYZED TO OUR
EAST...AND APPEARS STACKED UP AGAINST THE SACS. IT WILL PROVIDE A
BIT OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW...
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE HERE FOR A
WHILE. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS...AND MOTION TODAY WILL BE TO THE NE. HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS HEADLINE IS LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED.

BY THE MON-TUE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST TO BUILD WEST
BACK OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. THIS WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF SHOVING
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF NEW
MEXICO. THE RESULT WOULD BE TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/12-16/12Z
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS...BKN 030-040 FT AGL...LIKELY WITH OBSCURATION
OF AREA MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL A
THREAT. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT WIND SHIFTS AND INCREASED
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  68  85  68  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        81  64  77  59  76 /  60  60  50  50  40
LAS CRUCES              87  67  85  68  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  89  67  91 /  70  70  50  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              65  48  67  47  64 /  70  70  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  65  87  67  87 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             79  59  78  60  77 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  88  66  88  66  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
LORDSBURG               86  66  87  64  87 /  60  60  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

14 / BIRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1040 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
2 INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BOTH DAY
AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IF THE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE IF SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION.

ROGASH