Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
228 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

...RETRANS TO INCLUDE WATCH CODES AT THE BOTTOM OF PAGE...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT HAS GIVEN US EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MID WEEK WILL
BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERES GOOD NEWS AND NOT SO GOOD NEWS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
DEEP MOISTURE IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF PUSHING INTO
ARIZONA...THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS
TO VISIT THE BORDERLAND ON TUESDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM PWS ARE
BEGINNING TO DECLINE AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SATURATED
GROUNDS TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
WARRANT SCATTERED POPS...BUT I WONT MENTION HEAVY PRECIP. NOW ON
TUESDAY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE MOVING AN EASTERLY WAVE INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOOD. THE GFS IS FASTER BRINING IT IN ON TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE ETA BRINGS IT IN TUESDAY NIGHT. I HAVE GONE WITH
THE MIDDLE GROUND AND SLIPPED POPS UP A NOTCH ON TUESDAY. AFTER
TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS BODES WELL FOR US TO CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT BUT I WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
STILL THE MONSOON SEASON AFTER ALL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS THE SAME
WITH THE UPPER HIGH EITHER CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO OR JUST TO OUR
WEST WITH A DAILY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON TUESDAY I TOOK THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES BECAUSE THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER FROM THE EASTERLY
WAVE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

AVIATION...AUG 06 18Z - AUG 07 18Z
GNLY SCT-BKN30-050 BKN100-150 AGL WITH WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS NEAR STORMS WITH MTN TOPS OCNLY OBSCD. WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LCL SCT010 BKN015-030 OVC050-080 AGL WITH VSBY 1-3 MI IN +SHRA
TS AND BR. MTNS FQTLY OBSCD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  89  68 /  30  20  30  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        64  85  65  85  63 /  30  20  30  30  40
LAS CRUCES              68  91  68  88  65 /  30  20  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  87  67  90  63 /  30  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  67  47  62  44 /  20  30  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  90  66  87  62 /  30  20  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             61  82  59  80  58 /  50  30  50  30  40
DEMING                  68  91  66  88  62 /  40  20  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               68  90  66  89  61 /  40  30  50  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR NMZ022>023-030>032
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR TXZ055

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1024 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-071630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1024 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE GROUND IN
MANY AREAS IS SATURATED. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THAT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER...BUT ON TUESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE EL PASO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IS SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT THEIR LOCATION.