Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
337 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION SHOULD BE WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. FEWER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER UPSWING IN ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND NORMAL AND KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS BEFORE...THE NAM IS QUICK TO PUSH ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM BELT
WESTWARD WITH THE GFS MUCH SLOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
PLUME SHRINKING SOMEWHAT AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
INVERTED TROUGH (CURRENTLY NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA) SQUEEZES IT
AGAINST PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. JUST CANT SEE
BIG CUT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...THOUGH FOCUS WILL
PROBABLY SHIFT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HAVE LET FFA EXPIRE AND
WILL LET DAY SHIFT CONSIDER ISSUING ANOTHER WESTERN PORTION SHOULD
MOISTURE HANG IN THERE.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD BE LESS MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH ARRIVES FROM EAST. HOPEFULLY PUBLIC
WILL NOT LET GUARD DOWN WITH LOSS OF TROPICAL AIR MASS IN FAVOR OF
MORE TYPICAL MONSOON SCENARIO. IT ONLY TAKES A HEALTHY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON TOP OF LEFTOVER STANDING WATER AND FLOOD
RAKED SECTIONS TO RENEW THE RECENT PROBLEMS.

FINALLY....FINALLY...LET THE MODELS BE CORRECT WITH UPPER HIGH
BUILDING WESTWARD AND PLACING OUR CWA IN A WARMER LESS MOIST
PATTERN AFTER MIDWEEK. WOULDNT DARE DESCRIBE IT AS DRY...BUT ISOLATED
POPS WOULD SURE BE WELCOME OVER WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE. NEVER
THOUGHT I WOULD SAY THAT IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR LONG TERM DROUGHT

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/12Z-07/12Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFT
18Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND CIGS NEAR STORMS WITH MTN TOPS
OCNLY OBSCD. ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  71  90  70  92 /  40  30  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        86  64  84  65  88 /  30  30  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              89  68  90  68  91 /  40  30  20  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              86  67  86  67  93 /  40  30  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              63  48  66  47  65 /  30  20  30  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   86  67  89  66  90 /  50  30  20  40  30
SILVER CITY             84  61  81  59  83 /  50  50  30  50  30
DEMING                  88  68  90  66  91 /  50  40  20  40  30
LORDSBURG               88  68  89  66  92 /  50  40  30  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

01 FAUSETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1024 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-071630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1024 AM MDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE GROUND IN
MANY AREAS IS SATURATED. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THAT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER...BUT ON TUESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE EL PASO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IS SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT THEIR LOCATION.