Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT THU JUL 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUED TO LAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...BOTH THIS
EVENING AND ON FRIDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK TOWARD NORMAL DURING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTWEST CONTINUE TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
JUST EAST OF EL PASO MAY BE ENHANCING THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN CLOUD MOST
OF THE DAY SO IT WILL TAKE SOME QUICK CLEARING FOR THEM TO GET
MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS OUT WEST. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT A LITTLE WEST
AND THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE WEST AS WELL.
SO IVE BUMPED THE POPS OUT WEST UP A NOTCH FOR SUNDAY. THE MODELS
DISAGREE A LITTLE ON WHERE THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIANDER DURING THE
COMING WEEK. A LITTLE WEST AND WE WILL SEE OUR POPS DROP A LITTLE
EAST AND WE WILL SEE OUR POPS INCREASE. FOR NOW ILL TAKE THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND SLOWLY TREND THE POPS DOWN INTO THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...BUT AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS SLOWLY TREND
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO
IFR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  90  70  92  70 /  50  40  40  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        63  86  64  91  63 /  40  30  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              66  89  67  92  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              64  89  66  92  65 /  50  40  40  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              45  65  47  67  46 /  50  50  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  88  67  91  66 /  50  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             59  80  60  82  61 /  50  40  40  40  40
DEMING                  65  89  67  91  66 /  50  40  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               65  90  67  90  66 /  50  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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