Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED...AS A MATTER OF FACT TOO MUCH MOISTURE
HAS ARRIVED. THE PW FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS 1.57 INCHES
WHICH IS NEARLY 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS IS USUAL THERE IS NOT A
CLEAR TRIGGER TO HELP FIRE THE CONVECTION LIKE A VORT MAX OR COLD
FRONT...SO TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL HAVE TO HEAT UP WITH
THE SUN. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL HELP GET US ABOVE OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAC WE ARE
WATCHING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE EAST PLAINS. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE AIR THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT SINCE THERE IS NO FOCUS TO GEOGRAPHICLY NARROW THE
THREAT WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE IN FROM
THE GULF...SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE MOISTURE TRAIN
LET UP A LITTLE SO OUR PWS WILL SLIP BACK TOWARD AN INCH WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SO WE WILL SEE OUR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SCALE BACK TO MORE OF AN ISOLATED LEVEL. BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE WE WILL SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WE DRY A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS CREEP CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z-07/00Z
ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA DVLPG LTR THIS AFTN
AND EVNG...MAINLY ALG AND E OF TWB RTE 195 FM TCS TO ELP AND ALONG
RTE 196. BRIEF MVFR CONDTS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS IN HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  92  69  91  70 /  40  40  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        65  88  63  87  64 /  40  40  40  30  40
LAS CRUCES              67  90  66  90  67 /  40  40  40  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              69  90  64  90  66 /  50  40  40  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              46  64  45  66  47 /  60  50  50  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  89  65  89  67 /  50  40  40  30  40
SILVER CITY             59  80  59  81  60 /  50  40  40  30  40
DEMING                  66  90  65  90  67 /  40  40  40  30  40
LORDSBURG               67  90  65  91  67 /  40  40  40  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-061645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1035 AM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS NOT A REAL FOCUS TO
PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50...BUT ISOLATED TOTALS COULD BE
OVER TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
330 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-060330-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
ALAMOGORDO...MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TIMBERON...LORDSBURG...
DEMING...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO...SIERRA BLANCA...DELL CITY
330 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2006

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAINS WILL FALL OVER A FEW LOCATIONS WITH OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER ISOLATED AREAS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
STREETS BECOMING COVERED WITH SEVERAL FEET OF WATER AND A FEW
ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING. PERSONS MUST REMEMBER NEVER
TO DRIVE OR WALK ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS BUT INSTEAD TURN
AROUND AND SEEK ALTERNATE ROUTES OF TRAVEL. WHEN NEAR RISING WATERS
SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
WEATHER UPDATES.

BRICE