Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
118 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TOMORROW. UNFORTUNATELY THAT WILL LEAVE
US IN A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GULF COAST.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAN RESULT IN FLOODING
OF AREA ROADS AND ARROYOS.  REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER
COVERING A ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION NECESSARILY SHORT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT IN
EL PASO METRO AREA. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.

ACTIVITY BLOOMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW HALF OF CWA MAY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...OBVIOUSLY RAISING CONCERN OVER EL PASO AND
POINTS EAST.

LESS EFFICIENT PRECIP MECHANISM ONCE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND
MODEL PWS DROP TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
RECYCLE AND MONSOONAL FLOW

FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD BE
FED INTO THE MONSOON CIRCULATION DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST 0600Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  69  85  69  90 /  60  40  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA TX        82  62  82  58  88 /  60  40  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              84  68  87  67  90 /  60  40  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              90  67  83  64  87 /  60  40  40  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              67  48  64  47  67 /  60  40  50  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  64  86  64  88 /  60  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             79  61  77  60  81 /  60  50  40  40  40
DEMING                  84  66  86  62  89 /  60  40  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               83  64  87  60  88 /  60  50  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM ZONES 022-025..030-032 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
TX ZONES 055-056 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-021630-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1030 AM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE EL PASO METRO AREA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LOCAL ARROYO AND ROADWAY
FLOODING POPSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
8-E MAY FEED INTO THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER
THE WEEKEND INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS
HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH
ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ANY FLOODING THAT
MAY BE OCCURRING.

MACBLAIN

TXZ055-020707-
RIVER FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO, TX
107 PM MDT TUE AUG 01 2006

...THIS IS A RESEND OF THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIO GRANDE...

FOR THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING EL PASO, MODERATE FLOODING IS
FORECASTED.

THE LATEST STAGE IS 9.2 FEET AT 2 PM TUESDAY.  MODERATE FLOODING IS
FORECAST, WITH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF 9.6 FEET AT 7 PM WEDNESDAY, WHICH
IS 1.6 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.    THE STAGE WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

THIS STAGE WILL OVER TOP THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN PARTS OF EL PASO
COUNTY.   IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE RIVER SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS
STAGE HAS NOT BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI

RIO GRANDE
  EL PASO      8   9.2 TUE 12 PM    7.4    5.8    3.8

TSB