Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 130423
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1023 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOC041-053-089-159-195-130445-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060313T0445Z/
CHARITON MO-SALINE MO-HOWARD MO-COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
1023 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PETTIS...NORTHWESTERN COOPER...WESTERN HOWARD...SALINE AND SOUTHERN
CHARITON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CST...

AT 1021 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SLATER TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GLASGOW BY 1035 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF NELSON...BLACKWATER...GILLIAM AND ARROW ROCK ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3924 9346 3886 9346 3892 9311 3897 9286
      3909 9288 3933 9281

$$

MAS

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 130439
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOC041-053-089-159-195-130449-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060313T0445Z/
CHARITON MO-SALINE MO-HOWARD MO-COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PETTIS...
NORTHWESTERN COOPER...WESTERN HOWARD...SALINE AND SOUTHERN CHARITON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CST...

AT 1036 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3924 9346 3886 9346 3892 9311 3897 9286
      3909 9288 3933 9281

$$

MAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AS SURFACE LOW EXITS THIS
EVENING...SO WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IF DRYLINE DOES NOT IGNITE IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IN THE CU FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE TSRA
OUT OF FORECAST A BIT EARLIER. SEEING WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INCREASING. IF DRYLINE LIGHTS
UP...SHOULD BE IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

PRECIP WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THAT EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
EXTREME NORTHERN MO. HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE MUCH COOLER...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S IN NORTHWEST MO.  SHOULD SEE A LARGE TEMP
GRADIENT DOWN TO CENTRAL MO. ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRATUS DECK...THE
DIURNAL RANGE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 10 DEG WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND.  SURFACE HIGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY WEDNESDAY...WE SEE ANOTHER
LOW DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO GET
HERE...AND MAY NEED TO BRING POPS INTO WED AFTERNOON. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. MID RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO GO
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCES THUS FAR.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

415 AM SUN...
COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY WITH THE MAKINGS FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND HEAD TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AT
THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A DRY
LINE WILL ALSO HEAD EAST FROM EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A 140KT+ UPPER
JET.

CURRENTLY A FEW RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE INCLUDED A LOW END CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT SPREADS NORTHWARD.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. AM
ANTICIPATING AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE WARM FRONT
AND SOUTH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING DRYLINE BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MANY FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE SO IT SHOULDNT TAKE LONG FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. THERE IS A DEFINITE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE ANTICIPATED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS...AND A TORNADIC THREAT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE BACKED AND EHI VALUES REACH THE 3 TO 4
RANGE. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR THE STORMS MUST OVERCOME IS THE
EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 80
KNOTS FROM 0-6KM ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING WILL WARRANT WATCHING...AS ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT
THAN PROGGED BY THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WOULD SHIFT THE
SEVERE/TORNADIC THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THAN NORTHERN MISSOURI. STORMS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. CANT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER NORTHER MISSOURI MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND
ACTUALLY HEAD BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

STOFLET
&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1256 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER EXPLOSIVE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE LONG-
TRACKED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THESE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG A DRY LINE THAT IS LOCATED IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
PERSONS ARE URGED TO BE READY TO REACT QUICKLY SHOULD A WARNING BE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
935 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TORNADO          4 E SWEET SPRINGS       38.97N 93.35W
03/12/2006                   SALINE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO OVERTURNED A SEMI TRUCK ONTO CARS ON I-70 NEAR
            MP 69. NUMEROUS HOUSES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG COUNTY
            RD EE NORTH OF I-70. POWER POLES DOWNED ALONG RTE K NEAR
            I-70. POSSIBLE INJURIES...UNKNOWN NUMBERS. TIME
            ESTIMATED ON DELAYED REPORT.

0908 PM     TORNADO          LAMONTE                 38.73N 93.32W
03/12/2006                   PETTIS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE-HALF MILE WIDE TORNADO. DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
936 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TORNADO          LAMONTE                 38.73N 93.32W
03/12/2006                   PETTIS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE-HALF MILE WIDE TORNADO. DAMAGE REPORTED.

0931 PM     TORNADO          HOLDEN                  38.72N 94.00W
03/12/2006                   JOHNSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
940 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TORNADO          2 S MOBERLY             39.39N 92.43W
03/12/2006                   RANDOLPH           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED NORTH OF ROUTE Y. RELAYED BY COLUMBIA
            EOC.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TORNADO          2 E RENICK              39.35N 92.38W
03/12/2006                   RANDOLPH           MO   PUBLIC

            SCHOOL BUS OVERTURNED WITH COLLEGE STUDENTS. MULTIPLE
            INJURIES REPORTED. REPORT RELAYED FROM NWS LSX.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
945 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             LEES SUMMIT             38.92N 94.38W
03/12/2006  M1.75 INCHES     JACKSON            MO   STORM CHASER

            HAIL DAMAGE-BROKE 2 SKYLIGHTS NEAR TUDOR RD AND TODD
            GEORGE RD.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
947 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             GALLATIN                39.92N 93.97W
03/12/2006  M2.50 INCHES     DAVIESS            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MAS