Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 PM CDT TUE JUNE 06 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE MOIST WARM AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...WHICH HAS BEEN MOISTENED FURTHER BY A DISSIPATING MCS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW OF THIS MCS AND OVER TOP OF THE COLD POOL IN EASTERN IOWA.
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...AND THIS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE THE MAIN
SHOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 6 TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING...SO THOUGH WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...THE EVENT SHOULD BE OVER WITH WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO
FAIRFIELD BY THEN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WITH UPPER
RIDGING TAKING PLACE.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE FIRST
IN A LONG SERIES OF ENERGY OVER TOPPING THE WESTERN RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE TREND DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
FLATTEN...AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF.  THIS WILL KEEP
THE MIDWEST ZONAL...BUT WITH ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING
ACROSS AN EAST TO WEST FRONT NEAR IOWA...STORMS MAY REGENERATE IN
CONSECUTIVE DAYS.  THE SEASONAL REGIME IS ONE KNOWN FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
EVENT ARE UNCLEAR. ..ERVIN..
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
501 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
501 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN IOWA...THEN EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO EARLY EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES
THAT MAY LINGER FROM MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL END OVER THE AREA BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHEETS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 W IOWA CITY           41.66N 91.67W
06/06/2006                   JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS PUBLIC REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG INTERSTATE
            80

0332 PM     HAIL             MORSE                   41.75N 91.43W
06/06/2006  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

15

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