Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES...AND THIS IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS
BEEN ISSUED TIL MIDNIGHT...AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 78 IN IOWA...AND
FOR MERCER AND ROCK ISLAND IN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS UP TO 80 MPH. SOME SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY IN EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALBEIT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. NEW 18Z SOUNDING STILL HAS A
MINIMAL CAP ON IT. THIS CAP ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE HAS
PRECLUDED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH IT TRANSFORMING INTO AN MCS THAT
EXITS THE AREA AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. MCS IN TURN WILL HELP PUSH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE IA/MO BORDER WITH THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY SATURDAY
MORNING. STALLED FRONT TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THIS
COULD GET INTERESTING IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER ABOUT THE NORTH
HALF OF THE CWFA.

AFTER A QUIET MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY ATTM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 78.
IL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT ROCK ISLAND AND MERCER.
MO...NONE.

ERVIN/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
155 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE STORMS MAY THEN DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AND
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
TONIGHT BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH. SECONDARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THE PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA MOST AT RISK IS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WASHINGTON IOWA...TO MONMOUTH ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT
LINGERS IN THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL
WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA MAY
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AND RISING RIVER LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MCCLURE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1046 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAMBRIDGE               41.30N 90.19W
04/13/2006  E60 MPH          HENRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MIKEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1053 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO PRAIRIE         41.33N 90.85W
04/13/2006                   MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. POWER POLES SNAPPED...BARN BLOW DOWN
            AND SEVERAL MACHINE SHEDS DAMAGED IN BUFFALO PRAIRIE FROM
            1/2 WEST THROUGH TOWN TO 1/4 MILE EAST.

&&

RAYW

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