Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301818
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1218 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAC025-151-301900-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-060330T1900Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
1218 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CALHOUN AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1214 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAC CITY...OR 26 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STORM LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR JOLLEY BY 1225 PM CST.
  NEAR POMEROY BY 1230 PM CST.
  NEAR PALMER BY 1240 PM CST.
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POCAHONTAS BY 1245 PM CST.
  NEAR ROLFE BY 1250 PM CST.

THE LOCATION OF GILMORE CITY IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4252 9489 4221 9485 4259 9446 4292 9447
      4291 9471

$$

MYERS

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301834
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAC025-151-301843-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-060330T1900Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
1233 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CALHOUN AND POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 1231 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

IN SOME LOCATIONS STILL IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PEA TO MARBLE 
SIZED HAIL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4252 9489 4221 9485 4259 9446 4292 9447
      4291 9471

$$

MYERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE
TIMING/COVERAGE/MODES OF POTENTIAL SEVERAL WEATHER THURSDAY. FOR
OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST SURGE OF WAA SHOULD INITIATE SOME ELEVATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NUMEROUS INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT...INCLUDING A STRONG COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...POTENT
EARLY SPRING SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE WITH
LOW LCLS AND THE TRIPLE POINT IN WESTERN IOWA. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER
BY ABOUT 100 MILES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE
NAM FARTHER NORTH IN EXTREME NW IA BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST THE FAR W/SW COUNTIES WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...A COMMON CAVEAT APPLIES TOMORROW...NAMELY THE
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
BOOST THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SPC HAS HELD OFF ON A MODERATE RISK
AREA FOR THIS REASON...BUT THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK COULD VERY WELL
BE UPGRADED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE
RAPID...TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 40-50 MPH. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED HWO
TO REFINE THE SPECIFIC THREATS...AREAS...AND TIMING. THE LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS STILL SET TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...SOUTHERN IOWA WOULD BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINS COULD BE A FACTOR AS
WELL. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
907 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAZ044-057-058-070>072-081>083-092>095-311200-
CRAWFORD-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
907 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WILL EXIST IN THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45
TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDERST0RMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM 5 TO 9 PM. EARLY PREPARATION AND DEPLOYMENT WILL
BE NEEDED AS THE STORMS RACE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 50 MPH.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-045>050-059>062-073>075-
084>086-096-097-311200-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-
STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
907 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY WILL
BE FROM LARGE HAIL. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
THIS EVENING...A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDERST0RMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. BE PREPARED TO DEPLOY QUICKLY
AS ANY STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT NEARLY
50 MPH.

COGIL