Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301334
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
733 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAC161-301343-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-060330T1345Z/
SAC IA-
733 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SAC COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 730 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4255 9491 4244 9472 4261 9459 4271 9490
      4256 9491

$$

IAC025-151-301345-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-060330T1345Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
733 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CALHOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CST...

AT 730 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF NEWELL...OR 19 MILES EAST OF STORM
LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE LOCATION OF FONDA.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4255 9491 4244 9472 4261 9459 4271 9490
      4256 9491

$$

BOKSA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 301342
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
741 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAC025-151-301351-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-060330T1345Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
741 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND
SOUTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 735 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DES MOINES AT 1-800-759-9276.

LAT...LON 4255 9491 4244 9472 4261 9459 4271 9490
      4256 9491

$$

BOKSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CST WED MAR 29 2006

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE
TIMING/COVERAGE/MODES OF POTENTIAL SEVERAL WEATHER THURSDAY. FOR
OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST SURGE OF WAA SHOULD INITIATE SOME ELEVATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NUMEROUS INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT...INCLUDING A STRONG COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...POTENT
EARLY SPRING SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE WITH
LOW LCLS AND THE TRIPLE POINT IN WESTERN IOWA. THE GFS/NAM DIFFER
BY ABOUT 100 MILES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE
NAM FARTHER NORTH IN EXTREME NW IA BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST THE FAR W/SW COUNTIES WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...A COMMON CAVEAT APPLIES TOMORROW...NAMELY THE
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH INSOLATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
BOOST THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SPC HAS HELD OFF ON A MODERATE RISK
AREA FOR THIS REASON...BUT THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK COULD VERY WELL
BE UPGRADED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUITE
RAPID...TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 40-50 MPH. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED HWO
TO REFINE THE SPECIFIC THREATS...AREAS...AND TIMING. THE LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS STILL SET TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...SOUTHERN IOWA WOULD BE THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST HEAVY RAINS COULD BE A FACTOR AS
WELL. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
510 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-073>075-
084>086-096-097-311200-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
510 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MASSENA TO OSCEOLA TO CENTERVILLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 9
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FURTHER ANALYSIS IS
NEEDED TO ACCURATELY ACCESS THE SITUATION.

IAZ070>072-081>083-092>095-311200-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-
510 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MASSENA TO OSCEOLA TO CENTERVILLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 9
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FURTHER ANALYSIS IS
NEEDED TO ACCURATELY ASSESS THE SITUATION.

FORSTER