Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG CONTRAST OVR STATE TDA WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY PUSHED UP AGNST WRM
FNT ATTM.  AMS CAPPED FOR THE TIME BEING BUT VRY UNSTABLE.  MUCAPE
8000+ NOW WITH MLCAPE NOT MUCH LOWER SO IF ANYTHING CAN GET GOING
WUD GO SVR QUICKLY SIM TO 22 MAY 04 EVENT.  SCNDRY PUSH WL BE WITH
MCS DVLPT OVR NGT ROLLING DOWN THE BOUNDARY.  LATEST TPC SWODY1 FITS
DESCRIPTION WELL.  ACVTY WL BE TO THE S AFT TNGT WITH ONLY CHC FOR
PCPN IN FCST BEING WITH S/WV ON FRI.  NO SVR WX XPCTD WITH THAT SYS
HWVR.  TEMPS WL COOL SIG TO AT TO A LTL BLO NORM FOR A FEW DAYS BFR
SLO WRMG AFT THE WKND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY SW HALF OF CWA FROM
17Z-00Z.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
226 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-047>050-201100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
TAMA-
226 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. SUPER CELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR
LARGER...WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE
BY 4 PM...BUT MORE LIKELY BY 5 OR 6 PM THIS EVENING.

AREAS FROM FORT DODGE TO SAC CITY CAN EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME RELIEF IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM. A CONFERENCE CALL FOR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE HELD AT 330 PM.

IAZ044>046-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-201100-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
226 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 34. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH...MAINLY BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AMES THROUGH DES MOINES
TO OTTUMWA...CAN EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO AROUND 110
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WILL BE HELD AT 330 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN 7 AND
11 PM.

COGIL/KINNEY