Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR TERM...THEN RAIN
CHCS THRU FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHORT
WAVES...AND FINALLY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
ATTM WITH ISOLD NICKEL HAIL. BETTER TOR POTENTIAL TO THE EAST WITH
SEVERAL CONFIRMED TORNADOES THUS FAR...BUT SHORT TERM THREAT WILL
BEAR WATCHING INVOF OTM AND CENTERVILLE. STORMS SHOULD EXIT CWA
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT
INTO WED. THE NAM/GFS ARE BOTH SUGGESTING A SERIES OF RIDGE RIDING
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED THRU FRIDAY. THE
MODELS ARE NOT LATCHING ON TO CONSISTENT TIMING AND WILL KEEP POP
COVERAGE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW...WITH SLT CHCS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM...MAINLY THURS AFT/EVE. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES
ARRIVE FRI/SAT AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS
ALONE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. SAT NITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO WAVER NORTH AND SOUTH NEAR CENTRAL IOWA. THE SETUP FAVORS
OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WITH CONSISTENT BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE FEED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

IAZ074-075-084>086-094>097-071100-
MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HAIL TO PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH THE MAIN THREATS. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO OUTLINE THE SPECIFIC
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...HOWEVER WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>073-
081>083-092-093-071100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HAIL
TO PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO OUTLINE THE SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...HOWEVER
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             2 SE EDDYVILLE          41.14N 92.60W
06/06/2006  E0.88 INCH       WAPELLO            IA   PUBLIC

&&

COGIL

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