Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
245 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS ON CURRENT FRONT AND UPPER TROF MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IN LONGER TERM CONTINUED
INCONSISTENCY OF MODEL RUN TO RUN LEAVES FORECASTER WITH LITTLE TO
DO BUT WORK WITH PERSISTENCE.

TODAY MODELS HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE STATE.  AFTER MID MORNING ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
WHERE THESE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE QUESTION OF THE DAY AS MODELS DO
HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON MOVEMENT.  EXPECT SCENARIO TO BE THAT
INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF I35 THOUGH AS FRONT LAGS SWWRD
EXPECT SOME STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.  BY 00Z
ANY DYNAMICAL FIELDS EAST OF CWA AND EXPECT STORMS TO BE EAST TOO.
GUIDANCE TEMPS GOOD WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN.

IN LONGER TERM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MID WEEK AND LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR RAIN.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS
UP JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE GIVING DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY IF TIMING HOLDS AND BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE WITH GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT.  EXTENDED
MODELS ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE BOTH SUPPORTING BEST CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  GUIDANCE TEMPS NOT ADJUSTED MUCH THOUGH
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS ANY COOLING MAY SLIDE EASTWARD AND STATE LEFT
WITH LITTLE COOLING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

FORSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-057>060-070>073-
081>083-092>094-071100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS
IN THE AREA THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON SEVERAL OF THE DAYS
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097-071100-
BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS
IN THE AREA THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS
DEVELOP. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE
AREA.

FORSTER