Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 090623
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

KSC047-090632-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-060509T0630Z/
EDWARDS KS-
122 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS REPLACED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY.

A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF 
EDWARDS COUNTY THROUGH 2 AM CDT.  PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3792 9933 3774 9935 3774 9902 3792 9902

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TSTORM CHANCES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK LEE TROF/DRYLINE OVER
FAR WESTERN KANSAS INTERSECTING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE LOCATED
THERE, SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP. THE THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO HAYS. AS THIS AND OTHER
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ERUPT. THERE IS ENUF SHEAR GIVEN THE 2000-3000 JOULES OF CAPE TO
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY ON, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
CONGEALING INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN THE WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR. THE SHEAR
MAY INCREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES HOWEVER AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS IF THE STORMS CAN STAY DISCRETE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SE COLORADO ACROSS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT
FROM AN APPROACHING S/W TROF ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL LIKELY
IGNITE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT WILL MOVE ESE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. THE MODELS ALL
SEEM TO SHOW THIS SIGNAL SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG
THE BORDER, TAPERING IT OFF TO SLGT CHC AT HAYS. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BUT MAY BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR PLOWS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THRU THE PLAINS TO
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN
STEEP ENUF FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST.

HIGHS WILL BE TRENDING LOWER THRU THE PERIOD, WITH LOW TO MID 70S
ON TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

DAYS 3-7...

AGAIN TODAY THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONGRUENT THROUGH ABOUT
144 HOURS. THE SCENARIO IS TO BRING A ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE DOWN THE
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POLAR FRONT ENDING UP ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AND HAVE LEFT
SOME POPS IN FOR THAT EVENTUALITY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, HAVE MADE
LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  73  53  66 /  30  20  40  20
GCK  53  71  50  65 /  30  20  40  20
EHA  53  72  50  65 /  20  30  60  20
LBL  54  72  52  66 /  20  30  60  20
HYS  55  73  50  66 /  50  10  20  20
P28  60  76  56  67 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN27/08
LACY/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1243 PM CDT (1143 AM MDT) MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AT 1243 PM CDT (1145 AM MDT) MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM DODGE CITY TO
HAYS...GREAT BEND...PRATT...AND BACK TO DODGE CITY. THIS AREA LOOKS
TO BE WHERE OUR FIRST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL FORM BY AROUND 4 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THAT A FEW OF THEM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN DANGER BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN AND NEAR THE AREA MENTIONED
ABOVE.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1004 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             5 S INGALLS             37.76N 100.45W
05/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1033 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             8 NE MONTEZUMA          37.68N 100.34W
05/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1018 PM     HAIL             6 S CIMARRON            37.72N 100.35W
05/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1041 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             3 N ENSIGN              37.70N 100.23W
05/08/2006  E1.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MGERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     HAIL             8 N JETMORE             38.20N 99.89W
05/08/2006  E1.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             7 SSW ROZEL             38.10N 99.45W
05/08/2006  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HAIL             4 SW LARNED             38.14N 99.15W
05/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MGERARD