Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 020254
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

KSC057-069-020315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-060802T0315Z/
GRAY KS-FORD KS-
953 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF HOWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLER. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3769 10045 3763 10024 3791 9997 3790 10023
      3799 10024 3799 10033

$$

FINCH

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 020315
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

KSC057-069-020325-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-060802T0315Z/
GRAY KS-FORD KS-
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD AND
NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1015 PM CDT...

THE STORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3769 10045 3763 10024 3791 9997 3790 10023
      3799 10024 3799 10033

$$

FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SFC TROF STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SW
KS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NE ONCE
DEVELOPED. WILL THEREFORE KEEP PCPN MAINLY CONFINED IN THIS AREA
DURING THE EVENING LEAVING OUR EASTERN CWA PCPN FREE. RAIN COOLED
AIR FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL FORCE THE
FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST SO DID SPREAD PCPN SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO SW KS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 5H VORT LOBE THEN
PROGGED TO CROSS WRN KS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHEN WE WILL HAVE OUT BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN SO PLACED
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POPS
THEN TAPER OFF WED NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. QUESTION IS WHERE
OUR FRONT WILL BE? NAM12 PUSHES THE FRONT INTO OK BY 12Z THURSDAY
WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION IF WE DO GET ALL THIS PCPN THAT THE NAM12/GFS IS
SUGGESTS. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED POPS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AS A BREAK
IN THE HEAT EXPECTED MID WEEK.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE VARIOUS MODELS...UKMET, GFS, AND NAM
ALL HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
THE UKMET IS FARTHEST NORTH AND LIFTS THE FRONT BACK AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF US WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND STILL HAS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF US FRIDAY
MOST LIKELY NOT MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KS TILL SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS SOLUTION KEEPING POPS
IN THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL THEN BRING POPS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETURNS SOMEWHERE IN THAT WINDOW OF TIME. AFTER
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF US OUR PRECIP CHANCES ARE DONE AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD SO WILL GO WITH ABOVE
AND BELOW FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  86  63  88 /  20  50  40  10
GCK  73  85  63  86 /  50  60  30  10
EHA  72  85  64  85 /  40  40  20  20
LBL  74  85  64  88 /  30  40  30  20
HYS  74  85  63  86 /  40  60  30  10
P28  78  95  69  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
300 AM CDT (200 AM MDT) TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAINLY FROM ASHLAND TO LARNED AND WEST. THEN ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

06