Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 230008
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
708 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSC083-230018-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-060623T0030Z/
HODGEMAN KS-
708 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE WARNED STORM HAS EXITED THE COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3824 9985 3793 9988 3793 9957 3823 9959

$$

GRZYWACZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION.

CONVECTION ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OUT INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.
NONE OF THE 12Z OR 15Z MODELS HAD FORECAST ANY OF THE HUGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS GREATLY DISTRESSING. EVEN THE
USUALLY GOOD FSL RUC13 AND RUC20 MISSED IT ENTIRELY. THE MUCH
VAUNTED 12Z WRF IN PARTICULAR WAS HORRIBLE IN BOTH INITIALIZATION
AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 18Z WRF DID
INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION BUT IMMEDIATELY LOST IT IN ITS FORECASTS.
PER DISCUSSION WITH GLD WILL HOLD ON TILL THE LAST MINUTE IN HOPES
WE CAN DEDUCE ANY TRENDS FROM IT THAT WILL HELP WITH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FOR TONIGHT WILL PLAY WHAT THE MODELS DID FORECAST,
NAMELY ANOTHER MCS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND COS TO BETWEEN EHA AND LBL AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE. MUCAPES IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SPIN UP SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH SPC WATCH 545 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LATER WATCH INTO THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE ALSO GONE CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIP FROM DDC WEST
WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. THE
BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT IN MY
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

AFTER TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP SUPPORTS A FEW MORE NIGHTS OF
LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE LEFT
SOME SMALLER POPS IN PLACE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN THE
MODELS PERFORMANCE AND THEIR HUGE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER BOTH NIGHTS AND ALSO
ON SATURDAY AS THE MOS SEEMS TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WARMING IN
SPITE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR REINFORCING THE POLAR FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH EACH NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...
LATE IN THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC LOW AND LOCATION OF OUR
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AROUND THE CNTL CONUS. AM THEREFORE LEANING TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7. UNTIL THEN ANY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN
SOMEWHERE IN WRN KS. AT THIS TIME AM UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OR
LOCATION DOWN DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE THESE WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH
THIS SO WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND DRYER
PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK SINCE SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO MUCH WARMER BASED ON PROGGED EC
OR GFS 85H TEMPS. DID LOWER OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THE
MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  62  85 /  90  10  10 20
GCK  61  86  61  85 /  90  10  20 30
EHA  61  84  61  87 / 100  10  20 10
LBL  62  86  62  87 / 100  10  20 10
HYS  62  85  62  84 /  30   0  10 20
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  10  10 10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH 545 TIL 11PM CDT.

&&

FN08/18
JOHNSON/BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>081-087>090-231000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRAY-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-
LANE-MEADE-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-SCOTT-STAFFORD-TREGO-
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086-231000-
GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
1157 AM CDT (1057 AM MDT) THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN DANGER BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE RUNOFF IS LIMITED. AS THE STORM PROGRESS INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WINDS TURNING WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AT THAT TIME FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLES.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO SUBLETTE AND LIBERAL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR KANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY
WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SATANTA TO DEERFIELD LINE.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             1 N MCCRACKEN           38.60N 99.57W
06/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
535 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHIELDS                 38.62N 100.45W
06/22/2006  E80 MPH          LANE               KS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN POSTS BROKEN OFF

0526 PM     HAIL             13 S WAKEENEY           38.84N 99.88W
06/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     N SHIELDS               38.62N 100.44W
06/22/2006  E65.00 MPH       LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W TREGO CENTER        38.88N 100.01W
06/22/2006  E60.00 MPH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             1 E NEKOMA              38.47N 99.42W
06/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             10 SW NESS CITY         38.35N 100.04W
06/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     JETMORE                 38.08N 99.89W
06/22/2006  E60 MPH          HODGEMAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JOHNSON