Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION.

CONVECTION ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OUT INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.
NONE OF THE 12Z OR 15Z MODELS HAD FORECAST ANY OF THE HUGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS GREATLY DISTRESSING. EVEN THE
USUALLY GOOD FSL RUC13 AND RUC20 MISSED IT ENTIRELY. THE MUCH
VAUNTED 12Z WRF IN PARTICULAR WAS HORRIBLE IN BOTH INITIALIZATION
AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 18Z WRF DID
INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION BUT IMMEDIATELY LOST IT IN ITS FORECASTS.
PER DISCUSSION WITH GLD WILL HOLD ON TILL THE LAST MINUTE IN HOPES
WE CAN DEDUCE ANY TRENDS FROM IT THAT WILL HELP WITH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FOR TONIGHT WILL PLAY WHAT THE MODELS DID FORECAST,
NAMELY ANOTHER MCS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND COS TO BETWEEN EHA AND LBL AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE. MUCAPES IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SPIN UP SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH SPC WATCH 545 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LATER WATCH INTO THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE ALSO GONE CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIP FROM DDC WEST
WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. THE
BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT IN MY
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

AFTER TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP SUPPORTS A FEW MORE NIGHTS OF
LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE LEFT
SOME SMALLER POPS IN PLACE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN THE
MODELS PERFORMANCE AND THEIR HUGE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER BOTH NIGHTS AND ALSO
ON SATURDAY AS THE MOS SEEMS TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WARMING IN
SPITE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR REINFORCING THE POLAR FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH EACH NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...
LATE IN THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC LOW AND LOCATION OF OUR
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AROUND THE CNTL CONUS. AM THEREFORE LEANING TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7. UNTIL THEN ANY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN
SOMEWHERE IN WRN KS. AT THIS TIME AM UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OR
LOCATION DOWN DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE THESE WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH
THIS SO WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND DRYER
PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK SINCE SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO MUCH WARMER BASED ON PROGGED EC
OR GFS 85H TEMPS. DID LOWER OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THE
MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  62  85 /  90  10  10 20
GCK  61  86  61  85 /  90  10  20 30
EHA  61  84  61  87 / 100  10  20 10
LBL  62  86  62  87 / 100  10  20 10
HYS  62  85  62  84 /  30   0  10 20
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  10  10 10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH 545 TIL 11PM CDT.

&&

FN08/18
JOHNSON/BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-077>081-087>090-231000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRAY-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-
LANE-MEADE-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-SCOTT-STAFFORD-TREGO-
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086-231000-
GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
1157 AM CDT (1057 AM MDT) THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN DANGER BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WITH THE STORMS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE RUNOFF IS LIMITED. AS THE STORM PROGRESS INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT THEY WILL ENCOUNTER WINDS TURNING WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AT THAT TIME FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLES.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO SUBLETTE AND LIBERAL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR KANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY
WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SATANTA TO DEERFIELD LINE.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 14 N PLAINS CITY        37.47N 100.59W
06/21/2006  E70.00 MPH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

            WIND ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH BENT FRAME OF CENTER PIVOT
            SPRINKLER

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
414 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             4 S RUSH CENTER         38.41N 99.31W
06/21/2006  E1.50 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S LARNED              38.08N 99.10W
06/21/2006                   PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            ELM TREE SPLIT.

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NE SANFORD            38.23N 99.23W
06/21/2006  E60.00 MPH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

0930 PM     HAIL             LIEBENTHAL              38.65N 99.32W
06/21/2006  E0.88 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 PM     HAIL             2 E LORETTA             38.65N 99.15W
06/21/2006  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             2 N COLLYER             39.07N 100.12W
06/22/2006  E1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF REPORT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             2 N COLLYER             39.07N 100.12W
06/22/2006  E1.75 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             17 SW DODGE CITY        37.58N 100.23W
06/21/2006  E1.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

0815 PM     HAIL             12 NNW SUBLETTE         37.64N 100.93W
06/21/2006  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

0830 PM     HAIL             5 S HOWELL              37.71N 100.18W
06/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

0830 PM     HAIL             19 NW SUBLETTE          37.67N 101.09W
06/21/2006  E1.50 INCH       GRANT              KS   AIRPLANE PILOT

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NNW SUBLETTE         37.64N 100.93W
06/21/2006                   HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

            ELECTRICAL POLE BLOWN DOWN AND THREE SEMI TRAILERS BLOWN
            OVER

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE SUBLETTE          37.45N 100.74W
06/21/2006  E60.00 MPH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 N PLAINS CITY        37.47N 100.59W
06/21/2006  E70.00 MPH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

            WIND ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH BENT FRAME OF CENTER PIVOT
            SPRINKLER

&&

01