Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
417 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT/DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING NICELY TO THE WEST. DRY SLOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVING BINOVC...WHICH HAS LED TO RAPID
DESTABILZATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VALLEY. AS
A RESULT...A STRONG LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BOTH THE 12Z AND 18Z 12KM NAM HAS MODELED THIS QUITE
WELL...DEPICTING A NARROW RIBBON OF UNCAPPED SB CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 500-600J/KG COINCIDENT WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND LLVL CONVERGENCE.

LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD CLEAR THE FAR SERN CWA BY 00Z WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RULE. STRONG CAA...STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE
RATES AND 5-8MB ISALOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH WIND WARNING.

AS THE BLYR FLOW BACKS TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...LAKE
EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF THE SHSN AND FEEL
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WRLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS IN ADVANCE OF A S/W TROF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE -SHSN ACTIVITY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR. COULD BE SOME SMALL ACCUMS ACROSS THE FAR NW MTNS AND
WWD HAS PAINTED A 1-2 STRIPE ACROSS EXTREME NW WARREN CO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED H5
PATTERN APPEARS IN THE OFFING. TIGHT CLUSTERING OF ENS MEMBERS
AROUND A +PNA TELECONNECTION WOULD SUPPORT WHAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING -A LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN
NOAM AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRANSLATION OF
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND THERE
CORRESPONDING EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM...LOW PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN IDEA IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCT -SHSNRA ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ROUGH FLYING WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND SCTD SVR
TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING...BEING REPLACED BY
STRONG TURBULENT MIXING OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HOWLING AT OVER
50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT ABOVE GROUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS
TONIGHT..INCLUDING KBFD AND KJST...AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS PENN. TAF SITES ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
AND SUSQ VALLEY WILL GO SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR VSBYS
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-
033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ042-051>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL 10
PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-021045-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
533 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING WILL BE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND NOON OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 3 PM IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ019-045-012045-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
309 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRE AND CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 307 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POTTERS MILLS AND BOALSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR POE VALLEY STATE
PARK AROUND 315 PM...REBERSBURG...MILLHEIM...AND LAMAR AROUND 320
PM...MACKEYVILLE AROUND 325 PM...LOGANTON...CARROLL...MCCALL DAM
STATE PARK AROUND 330 PM AND AVIS AROUND 335 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
322...STATE ROAD 45.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ063-064-012145-
ADAMS-CUMBERLAND-
340 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE TO THE EAST AND AFFECT
ADAMS AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM...

AT 336 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
SHIPPENSBURG TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAGERSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BLOSERVILLE...WALNUT BOTTOM
AROUND 345 PM...CARLISLE SPRINGS...SEVEN STARS AROUND 400 PM...NEW
CUMBERLAND...HOGESTOWN AROUND 415 PM...MCSHERRYSTOWN AND LITTLESTOWN
AROUND 430 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 207 AND 239...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 27 AND 65...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 41.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...STATE
ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

A 15 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE
STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO TO 55 MPH FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

VISIBILITY WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE IN THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TRAVEL ACROSS THIS AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKWOOD                39.92N 79.16W
12/01/2006                   SOMERSET           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE TOWN OF ROCKWOOD AND
            IN CONEMAUGH TOWNSHIP

1210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE BURNSIDE           40.79N 78.76W
12/01/2006                   CLEARFIELD         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF BURNSIDE TOWNSHIP.

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N JOHNSTOWN           40.37N 78.92W
12/01/2006                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TAYLOR TOWNSHIP.

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SMETHPORT           41.81N 78.50W
12/01/2006                   MCKEAN             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS RT 59 IN KEATING TOWNSHIP.

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW ST. MARYS          41.48N 78.63W
12/01/2006                   ELK                PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROUTE 255 BETWEEN SAINT
            MARYS AND JOHNSONBURG.

1255 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WELLSBORO               41.75N 77.30W
12/01/2006                   TIOGA              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN WELLSBORO.

1256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE DUBOIS            41.07N 78.73W
12/01/2006                   CLEARFIELD         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN PARTS OF BRADY
            TOWNSHIP.

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE GEISTOWN           40.31N 78.84W
12/01/2006                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN PARTS OF RICHLAND AND SUMMERHILL TOWNSHIPS.

0227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                40.96N 76.61W
12/01/2006                   MONTOUR            PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ON ROUTE 11

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S SUNBURY               40.86N 76.79W
12/01/2006                   NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 147

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELINSGROVE             40.80N 76.87W
12/01/2006                   SNYDER             PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT SELINSGROVE

0310 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STATE COLLEGE           40.79N 77.86W
12/01/2006                   CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE PINE TREE DOWN ON PIKE ROAD

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERWICK                 41.06N 76.25W
12/01/2006                   COLUMBIA           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES POLES AND WIRES DOWN FOR 2 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
            LINE FROM SR487 NEAR KNOBELS PARK TO BERWICK

0340 PM     HAIL             WSW SNYDER-MIDDLESWARTH 40.79N 77.32W
12/01/2006  E0.25 INCH       SNYDER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

GAD

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