Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...

ZONE TEXT AND WEATHER GRIDS VIA THE WEB UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 874 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. LINE OF HEAVY
SHRA/TSRA WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES RACING NE AT 55 TO 60 MPH.
TIMING ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE WRN MTNS BETWEEN 16-18Z...THE
CENTRAL ZONES 18-19Z AND THE AREA EST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM 19-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 936 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...

NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH VIRTUALLY NO LIGHTNING ATTM WAS
RACING TO THE NE AT AROUND 50 KT. SREF CAPE/AND NAM PRESSURE RISE
MAXS TARGET THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE...CAPTURING THE GREATER PORTION OF
SPC/S MDT RISK OUTLOOK AREA.

ISSUED A ZONE/GRID UPDATE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THE NCRFB...LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WRN PENN
MTNS...AND DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

REST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 355 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

STRENGTHENING LO PRES TRACKING TRACKING NORTHWRD THRU OHIO VALLEY
THIS AM. STEADY RAIN CONFINED TO AREA NORTH OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE...LEAVING PA MAINLY RAIN-FREE EARLY THIS AM. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY HVY
SHWRS/TSTMS. MODEL CAPE VALUES SIGNIFICANT FOR TIME OF YEAR (ARND
500 J/KG)...COMBINED WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR...SUPPORT THE MED RISK OF
SVR WX ISSUED BY SPC. LL SHEAR NR 50KTS ALSO SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS LIFT ALONG COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. 1HR FFG VALUES EXCEED STORM TOTAL QPF OVR
MUCH OF THE REGION...SUGGESTING ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE FFA IN TACT FOR NOW...WHICH MESHES
WELL WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HAVE EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO COVER ENTIRE CWA PER COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FEEL GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDING DATA STILL SHOWS 50-60KT WIND AT TOP OF WELL MIXED BLYR
BEHIND FRONT...SO NON-CONVECTIVE GUSTS NR WARNING CRITERIA STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WILL DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS THIS EVENING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS...AND ABV FREEZING SFC TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP
ACCUMS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MTN -SHSN SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES ON
SATURDAY AS RIDGE OF HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD PA FROM THE WEST. FAIR
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY UNDER RIDGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

00Z MREF SHOWING POTENT S/WV ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT MTN -SHSN TO ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW IS PROGGED BY NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TO REMAIN TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT PA. COLDEST AIRMASS OF
SEASON IS LIKELY TO BE DRAWN SOUTH IN WAKE OF S/WV EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MREF 850 TEMPS ARND -14C MONDAY SUGGEST HIGHS MAY REMAIN BLW
FREEZING OVR ALL BUT SUSQ VALLEY.

AVIATION...

ROUGH FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS BIG CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY.

WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING MOST
AREAS VFR BUT MVFR STRATOCU BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO LOWER SUSQ AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE.  THE STRATOCU WILL
SLOWLY LOWER AND SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH BY SUNRISE AND LLWS
WILL DEVELOP FOR MAINLY EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ALSO REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS LOCALLY EARLY...MAINLY IN THE NW.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AND BECOME
GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN ALOFT.

STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS CENTRAL PA BETWEEN 16Z-20Z BRINGING MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...AND THE TSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT AVIATION
INTERESTS.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP TO
SUSTAINED 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL
KEEP LLWS IN THE FORECAST AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.  RAIN
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL IMPROVING
OF CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE SHOWERS.  LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY LAST THROUGH 12Z IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES OF KBFD/KJST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-
033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-
033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066 UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-021045-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
533 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING WILL BE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND NOON OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 3 PM IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1211 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ005-011815-
MCKEAN-
1211 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MCKEAN COUNTY...

AT 1210 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF
JAMESTOWN TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARREN TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KANE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
KANE AROUND 1220 PM...WESTLINE...MARSHBURG AROUND 1225 PM...LEWIS
RUN...CYCLONE...BRADFORD AROUND 1230 PM AND REW AROUND 1235 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE
219...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RHG

FORECASTER:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKWOOD                39.92N 79.16W
12/01/2006                   SOMERSET           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE TOWN OF ROCKWOOD AND
            IN CONEMAUGH TOWNSHIP

&&

MBC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ006-037-011845-
POTTER-TIOGA-
1241 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT POTTER AND TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 1239 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
JOHNSONBURG TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF KANE TO 4 MILES WEST OF
BRADFORD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
SHINGLEHOUSE AROUND 105 PM...ROULETTE...KEATING SUMMIT AROUND 110
PM...OSWAYO AROUND 115 PM...COUDERSPORT AROUND 120 PM...GENESEE
AROUND 125 PM AND DENTON HILL STATE PARK AROUND 130 PM.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN AS THEY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...STATE
ROAD 449.

FORECASTER:RHG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N JOHNSTOWN           40.37N 78.92W
12/01/2006                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TAYLOR TOWNSHIP.

&&

MBC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ010-011-017-018-041-045-011830-
CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-ELK-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1256 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMERON...CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...
CLINTON...ELK AND LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 1252 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ST. MARYS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEARFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 75
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR PINE GLEN...MOSHANNON AROUND 105
PM...SNOW SHOE AROUND 110 PM...MILL HALL...LOCK HAVEN AROUND 125
PM...DUNNSTOWN AND MACKEYVILLE AROUND 130 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 179.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE
ROAD 120.

STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

FORECASTER:RHG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
102 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

PAZ019-026-027-034-035-011830-
BEDFORD-FULTON-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
102 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...CENTRE...FULTON...
HUNTINGDON AND MIFFLIN COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF
TYRONE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREEZEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR PINE GROVE MILLS... WATERFALL...AND
THE SIDELING HILL REST AREA AROUND 110 PM...STATE COLLEGE...WHIPPLE
DAM STATE PARK...AND THREE SPRINGS AROUND 115 PM...SHIRLEYSBURG AND
SHADE GAP AROUND 120 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 186...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 160.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
22/522...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 45.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FORECASTER: DANGELO