Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1143 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.UPDATE...TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND NEAR
SINTON TO PORT OCONNOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. UPR LOW TO
THE NE IS NOT IN AN OVERLY FAVORABLE AREA WRT SYNOPTIC
LIFT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT AREA OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. 10 TO 15 KNOT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF MAY HELP KEEP THIS SFC BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE LARGES THREAT THEREFORE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST
FROM REFUGIO TO PORT LAVACA...BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT INLAND
SLIGHTLY W/ TIME PER THE NAM. GIVEN THIS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
THREAT FOR TRAINING TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NRN COASTAL BEND AND
ADJACENT INLAN PLAINS AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN 6 COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
LEFT POPS AS IS SHOWING SCT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20S FAR WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006)

SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER LOW.
THESE SOLNS PROG THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD...THEN OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY. SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WRN CWFA LATER TDA...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WATERS. DRG THE PERIOD...THE NAM/GFS
MAINTAIN HIGH PW VALUES OWING TO LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ANTICIPATE SCT CONVECTION TDA...WITH GREATEST POPS OVR THE ERN CWFA.
EXPECT SCT ACTIVITY WED TO BE CONFINED TO THE ERN CWFA. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO APPROACH 100F OVR THE EXTREME WRN CWFA THURSDAY AFTN. DO
NOT EXPECT MAX READINGS TO EXCEED THE LOWER 90S OVR THE ERN CWFA
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...REMNANTS OF UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NWRN GULF THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
WEAKEN AND MEANDER TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WITH TROF OVER THE COASTAL REGION ON FRIDAY WILL STILL
CALL FOR HIGH POPS OVER ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL DECREASE STARTING SATURDAY THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY
STRENGTHENING HIGH. UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO DROP SWD INTO S TX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIGHT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

MJG...UPDATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-061115-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
609 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR CONTINUES TO
RESIDE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND COMBINE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND THE SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED

87/98

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

TXZ246-247-051645-
CALHOUN-REFUGIO-
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CALHOUN AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES...

AT 1043 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF TIVOLI...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SEADRIFT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SEADRIFT BY 1110 AM CDT.
  MAGNOLIA BEACH BY 1140 AM CDT.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF SEADRIFT AND MAGNOLIA BEACH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

TM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

TXZ245>247-051845-
ARANSAS-CALHOUN-REFUGIO-
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

...FUNNEL POSSIBLE OVER ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR MISSION BAY IN REFUGIO COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED
THAT ANOTHER FUNNEL CLOUD COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER COPANO BAY.

AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE
FUNNEL CLOUDS TO FORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ANY FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT A FUNNEL
DOES REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME A TORNADO...OR IF OVER WATER...A
WATERSPOUT.

33/MORALES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
151 PM CDT WED JUL 05 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKPORT                28.04N 97.05W
07/05/2006                   ARANSAS            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ACROSS THE CITY. WATER ANKLE TO TIRE DEEP IN
            SPOTS. ONE HOUSE FLOODED. TWO NURSING HOMES WITH WATER
            INSIDE...MAY NEED EVACUATIONS. RAIN RATE 5 INCHES PER
            HOUR.

&&

SMART