Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 051916
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
210 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

TXC007-057-391-052015-
ARANSAS-CALHOUN-REFUGIO-
210 PM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND REFUGIO COUNTIES...

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
TIVOLI...SEADRIFT...REFUGIO...PORT LAVACA...MAGNOLIA BEACH...LONG 
MOTT AND KAMAY.

AT 206 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WIDESPREAD 
FLOODING ACROSS THE ROCKPORT AREA WITH SEVERAL FLOODED STRUCTURES 
AND MANY WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ALSO 
REPORTED MORE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND ROADWAYS ACROSS CALHOUN 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY AROUND SEA DRIFT AND MAGNOLIA BEACH. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... 
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ARANSAS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE BARRIER 
ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN REFUGIO COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2836 9640 2800 9695 2803 9698 2796 9707
      2796 9708 2806 9713 2811 9705 2814 9711
      2810 9719 2832 9736 2850 9702 2848 9692
      2856 9688 2867 9666 2841 9640

$$
33/MORALES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1143 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

.UPDATE...TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND NEAR
SINTON TO PORT OCONNOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. UPR LOW TO
THE NE IS NOT IN AN OVERLY FAVORABLE AREA WRT SYNOPTIC
LIFT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT AREA OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. 10 TO 15 KNOT SRLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF MAY HELP KEEP THIS SFC BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE LARGES THREAT THEREFORE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST
FROM REFUGIO TO PORT LAVACA...BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT INLAND
SLIGHTLY W/ TIME PER THE NAM. GIVEN THIS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
THREAT FOR TRAINING TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NRN COASTAL BEND AND
ADJACENT INLAN PLAINS AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN 6 COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
LEFT POPS AS IS SHOWING SCT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND TAPERING
BACK TO 20S FAR WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006)

SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE UPPER LOW.
THESE SOLNS PROG THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD...THEN OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY. SUBSIDENT MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WRN CWFA LATER TDA...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WATERS. DRG THE PERIOD...THE NAM/GFS
MAINTAIN HIGH PW VALUES OWING TO LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ANTICIPATE SCT CONVECTION TDA...WITH GREATEST POPS OVR THE ERN CWFA.
EXPECT SCT ACTIVITY WED TO BE CONFINED TO THE ERN CWFA. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO APPROACH 100F OVR THE EXTREME WRN CWFA THURSDAY AFTN. DO
NOT EXPECT MAX READINGS TO EXCEED THE LOWER 90S OVR THE ERN CWFA
OWING TO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...REMNANTS OF UPPER
LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NWRN GULF THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
WEAKEN AND MEANDER TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WITH TROF OVER THE COASTAL REGION ON FRIDAY WILL STILL
CALL FOR HIGH POPS OVER ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL DECREASE STARTING SATURDAY THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY
STRENGTHENING HIGH. UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO DROP SWD INTO S TX
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIGHT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...AND VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

MJG...UPDATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-061115-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
609 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR CONTINUES TO
RESIDE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND COMBINE WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND THE SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED

87/98

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

TXZ246-247-051645-
CALHOUN-REFUGIO-
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CALHOUN AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES...

AT 1043 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF TIVOLI...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SEADRIFT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SEADRIFT BY 1110 AM CDT.
  MAGNOLIA BEACH BY 1140 AM CDT.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF SEADRIFT AND MAGNOLIA BEACH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

TM