Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 252015
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

OHC095-252024-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-060525T2030Z/
LUCAS OH-
414 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LUCAS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4171 8385 4173 8347 4170 8343 4169 8336
      4172 8335 4168 8330 4164 8320 4162 8357
      4157 8361 4153 8370 4148 8372 4143 8385

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
330 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)
TORNADO WATCH BOX IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 10 PM EDT.  CURRENTLY WARM FRONT NEAR A CLE-COL LINE WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW INDIANA TO SOUTHEAST OF ST LOUIS.
CAPES RANGE FROM 4500 J/KG SRN ILLINOIS TO AROUND 1500 J/KG NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO.  CAP HAS FINALLY ERODED AND TSRA DEVELOPING.  TWO
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  THE FIRST NR A FDY TO EVV LINE
IN AN AREA OF LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE SECOND LINE FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH IS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

VERY DRY AIR...WITH DELTA THEATA E OF GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS.  BUT 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR BELOW 3KM WILL ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TOMORROW.  RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...
GFSLR/DGEX STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM SO AGAIN
WENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.  CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN HAS SOMEWHAT OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NRN HALF OF CONUS. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUILDING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN
1/3 OF THE CONUS BY MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS NRN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO I LEFT
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHC POPS GOING WEDNESDAY.  OTHER THAN THAT
PRETTY MUCH A DRY FORECAST. BY THURSDAY BROAD BUT FLATTENED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS ENTIRE CONUS WITH THE JET RUNNING ALONG THE NRN TIER.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MODERATE OR SLGT RISK OF SVR STORMS FOR
A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVR OH/IN
AND ILL AND MOV SLOWLY EAST. INCREASED MOISTURE AND HIGH
INSTABILITIES SUGGEST AMPLE INGREDIENTS TO IGNITE SVR TSTMS THIS
AFTN AND EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A WARM FRONT OVR OH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
TOWARDS MORNING.

WILL GRADUALLY BRINGS CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVE AND OVERNITE AS THE
COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDS PROBABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATELLITE PICTURES AND METARS OBS STILL SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS...
I EXPECT MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN TO MOVE EAST OR
QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...TOR WATCH TIL 10 PM EDT OH003...006>008...017...018.
PA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...BC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
547 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-261200-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
547 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY
LATE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF
STORMS BECOME SEVERE.

LEZ142>149-162>169-261200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
547 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LEINS