Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 310112
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
911 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

OHC099-310121-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0300.000000T0000Z-060731T0115Z/
MAHONING OH-
911 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MAHONING COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
915 PM EDT...

SPOTTERS REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR CANFIELD.


LAT...LON 4098 8063 4098 8068 4100 8075 4102 8083
      4108 8083 4110 8082 4112 8081 4112 8054
      4095 8054

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...
BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA WL CONT ESE AND BE OUT OF AREA BY LATE THIS
EVE SO WL ONLY HV TO DEAL WITH ERN TAF SITES FOR FIRST HR OR SO.
LGT WNDS AND HUMID AIR SHUD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG LATE
TNGT.  ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DVLPG IN NRN PART OF GRTLKS SHUD
STAY N OF OUR AREA LATE TNGT INTO MON MORN.  DAYTIME HEATING MAY
CAUSE MORE AFTN TSRA ON MON BUT WRMG AT MID AND UPR LVLS WL ACT TO
STABILIZE AMS SOME SO ACTIVITY SHUD BE MORE ISOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM(TNT-TUE)...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE VERY SHORT TERM IS LINE OF SHRA/TS COMING OUT OF
MI.  ENVIRONMENT THAT STORMS ARE MOVING INTO IN OHIO IS
FAVORABLE...WITH PLENTY OF CAPE/INSTABILITY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LINE WILL REGAIN SOME STRENGTH.  SEE LATEST SPC PRODUCTS AND LOCAL
WARNINGS.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...HAVE CHC AND SLT CHC POPS
WHILE WE ARE IN NW FLOW.

NEXT BIGGEST WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HEAT
ADV IN EFFECT FOR MON AND TUE.  DEWPOINTS HANGING OUT AROUND 73 AND
HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL GIVE US HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100.  TEMPS TUE ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID90S.
NOT EXPECTING THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 AS SUGGESTED BY THE
MAV...WITH ITS POOR PERFORMANCE AS OF LATE ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS ABV
90 AND FORECASTED H5 RIDGE AND H8 TEMPS NOT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS OF 100.  ALL OF THIS IS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR UNDER A
593DM RIDGE WHICH WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER KY.  SUBSIDENCE/CAP TO
SHUNT PRECIP CHCS.
&&

.LONG TERM(WED-SUN)...
A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
THROUGH MID WEEK PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...THU LOOKS LIKELY FOR OUR CWA.  OP GFS IN LINE WITH
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF...THEREFORE ADJUSTED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO MORE
SQUARELY PLACE FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON THU.
SOME CHANCE LINGERS INTO FRI...AS FRONT SLOWS AS IT RUNS INTO
SOUTHERN STATES HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS.  TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONT WILL DROP BACK TO NORMALS...OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW.  WE WILL GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WITH RETURN FLOW TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID
80S.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...HEAT ADV ALL COUNTIES MON AND TUE AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
.PA...HEAT ADV ALL COUNTIES MON AND TUE AFTN AND EARLY EVE.

&&

SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-311430-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY COULD CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KIELTYKA