Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
725 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...
SCT TSRA WEST PART OF FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  IN FACT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE...BUT
DONT EXPECT A SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP.  CELLS MOVING E APPROXIMATELY
25KT.

AFTER THESE BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE E EXPECT A SECOND WAVE OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WESTERN OH AND MOVING E AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS NRN OH...MOVING E OF FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT)...
LOOKS LIKE WARM AND POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW
OH CONTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONT NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPS IN MID 80S.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO SPROUT UP LATER THIS EVE AS DECENT LOW LEVEL
JET GETS SET UP JUST TO THE W.  AT THE SAME TIME...NICE VORT SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ROTATE ACROSS AREA.  NOT MUCH SFC
CONVERGENCE BUT SHEAR WILL INCR AS UPPER WAVE ARRIVES THUS EXPECTING
MAINLY MULTICELL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP.  SUM STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS ESP WRN AREAS.  BIGGER CONCERN THO IS POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF ECHOS.  BOTH GFS/NAM PRINTING OUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF
BUT STILL THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.  AT ANY RATE...WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR THU.  WILL CONT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.  AGAIN WON/T BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SFC FORCING BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND TO INITIATE AT LEAST SCT STORMS.

HAVE LOWERED HI TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A TAD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED.  EVEN WITH FULL
SUN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE GIVEN MOIST GROUND AND LEVEL OF GREENNESS
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)...
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL CONT THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.  TEMPS WILL
CONT TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO REMAINING FAIRLY
HIGH.  LATEST EXTENDED GUID NOW KEEPING QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FURTHER N THAN ADVERTISED BY EARLIER RUNS.  THIS OF COURSE WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.  COULD SEE A
STRAY TSRA JUST ABOUT ANYTIME WITH THE WARM AND HUMID SWLY FLOW.
BUT...WILL CONFINE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO SAT AND SUN WHEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CLOSEST.  WILL THEN TRY FOR DRY WX THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE S.  COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH FORECAST AREA AT END OF THE PERIOD SO
PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT JUST AFT PERIOD ENDS.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
526 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-271100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
526 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO
MANSFIELD LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OUDEMAN