Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 040708
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

OHC035-040718-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0240.000000T0000Z-060704T0715Z/
CUYAHOGA OH-
308 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CUYAHOGA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE COUNTY. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4149 8195 4149 8172 4162 8149 4156 8148
      4156 8139 4143 8137 4135 8141 4135 8158
      4130 8167 4128 8186 4135 8188 4135 8197

$$

MRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
117 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  UPSTREAM OBS WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE SHOWN PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30 KTS WITH VSBYS UNDER A MILE AT TIMES.  HAVE THEREFORE
OPTED TO CARRY THESE CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST PART
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THEN BACK OFF TO IFR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE
TO FAVOR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF TSRA DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RETAINED PROB30S AT ALL
LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DIFFICULT TO FINE-TUNE TIMING THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOING THIS EVE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) OVR NRN OH WHICH HAS
LIMITED SURFACE BASE STORMS.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONT TO ADVERSTISE A
DECENT WLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  THIS COULD CAUSE
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.  STORMS JUST S OF FORECAST AREA FIRST
SIGN THAT THIS JET COULD BE INDEED DEVELOPING.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SVR WX THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS A GOOD BET.
WILL CONT TO MONITOR STORMS BUT DO EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCR NEXT FEW
HOURS.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.PREV SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
JUST WATCHING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM
THE STORMS THIS MORNING KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND THIS WILL HELP TO
SLOW DOWN THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOME OPEN AREA OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREA MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
6 PM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF THE JET AND SOME
SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER WISCONSIN DROPS
SOUTH. THINGS SHOULD START DEVELOPING RAPIDILY OVER IL...WI AND IA
BY 23Z. COMTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN
AWAY FROM ONE AREA...THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZED AND WITH SOME SHEAR THE THREAT OF SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

FORECAST IS STILL TOUGH FOR TUESDAY AS GFS IS SLOWER IN PUSHING IN
THE DRIER AIR...ATTM GOING WITH WRK/NAM THAT THINGS WILL TRY TO DRY
OUT FROM THE NORTH. MODELS TRY TO HINT AT LITTLE VORT MAXES COMING
DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATTM KEPT IT DRY
BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU MON)...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WARM. A TROUGH/FRONT MAY BE IN
THE AREA MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY WILL JUST GO WITH A 20
POP. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
PREV SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-041200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
619 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF STORMS DEVELOP
AND BECOME SEVERE.

LEINS