Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 040404
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1204 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

OHC033-040445-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-060704T0445Z/
CRAWFORD OH-
1204 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT FOR 
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 1201 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NORTH ROBINSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRESTLINE...

LAT...LON 4084 8308 4085 8283 4086 8282 4086 8275
      4075 8274 4074 8276 4074 8287 4071 8300
      4071 8311 4082 8311

$$

MRD

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 040438
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1237 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

OHC033-040447-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-060704T0445Z/
CRAWFORD OH-
1237 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4084 8308 4085 8283 4086 8282 4086 8275
      4075 8274 4074 8276 4074 8287 4071 8300
      4071 8311 4082 8311

$$

MRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
950 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING GOING THIS EVE.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) OVR NRN OH WHICH HAS
LIMITED SURFACE BASE STORMS.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONT TO ADVERSTISE A
DECENT WLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  THIS COULD CAUSE
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.  STORMS JUST S OF FORECAST AREA FIRST
SIGN THAT THIS JET COULD BE INDEED DEVELOPING.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH
SVR WX THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS A GOOD BET.
WILL CONT TO MONITOR STORMS BUT DO EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCR NEXT FEW
HOURS.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.PREV SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
JUST WATCHING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM
THE STORMS THIS MORNING KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND THIS WILL HELP TO
SLOW DOWN THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOME OPEN AREA OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREA MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
6 PM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF THE JET AND SOME
SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER WISCONSIN DROPS
SOUTH. THINGS SHOULD START DEVELOPING RAPIDILY OVER IL...WI AND IA
BY 23Z. COMTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN
AWAY FROM ONE AREA...THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZED AND WITH SOME SHEAR THE THREAT OF SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

FORECAST IS STILL TOUGH FOR TUESDAY AS GFS IS SLOWER IN PUSHING IN
THE DRIER AIR...ATTM GOING WITH WRK/NAM THAT THINGS WILL TRY TO DRY
OUT FROM THE NORTH. MODELS TRY TO HINT AT LITTLE VORT MAXES COMING
DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATTM KEPT IT DRY
BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU MON)...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WARM. A TROUGH/FRONT MAY BE IN
THE AREA MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY WILL JUST GO WITH A 20
POP. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE A RND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH
SOME LINGERING TNGT THEN ANOTHER RND MIDDAY TUE.  MODELS ALL DIFFER
ON WHERE CLUSTER OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WL BE THIS AFTN THRU
TUE.  HI DEBRIS CLOUD OUTFLOW FM CONVECTION NR FDY SHUD HELP TO KP
NERN AREA MORE STABLE THIS AFTN BUT BY EVE SOME SCT ACTIVITY CUD
DVLP...SO WL LIKELY ONLY CHASE IMMINENT TSRA IN TAFS THEN USE VCNTY
OR JUST MENTION CB FOR REST OF TAF TIME PD.  ON TUE...THINK CDFNT
MOVG SE ACRS AREA SHUD BE FAR ENUF INLAND TO KP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LIMITED TO FDY...MFD...CAK AND YNG BY MIDDAY HRS WHEN NEW
RND OF DIURNAL BGNS TO DVLP.  PROB WL SEE MVFR FOG REDEVELOP TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z-24Z)...
THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21Z
RUC SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. TOUGH CALL ON HOW STRONG THE
STORMS WILL BE AS THE CELLS NR KGUS HAVE SEEMED TO DIMINISH...LIKELY
DUE TO RUNNING INTO SOME STABLE AIR JUST WEST OF THE OH/IN BORDER.
ALL MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
WEST THIS EVENING DUE TO A RAPID INCREASE OF THE LLJ...BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCLEAR AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW LVL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO FDY AND TOL AROUND 03Z AND THEN JUST SHOWERS SPREADING EAST TO
YNG BY 06Z. WL KEEP ERI DRY TONIGHT DESPITE THE MODEL SUGGESTING
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THAT SITE. ONCE THE PCPN MOVES OUT...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. IT SHOULD START TO
DRY OUT TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN IN THE AFTN WITH
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING THRU. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 TSRA FOR
ALL SITES AFTER 18Z.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KUBINA
PREV SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-041200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
619 AM EDT MON JUL 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF STORMS DEVELOP
AND BECOME SEVERE.

LEINS