Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WGUS61 KCLE 221616
FFACLE

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006



OHZ021>023-029>033-037-038-047-221730-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-060722T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...MANSFIELD...
ASHLAND...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN...MOUNT GILEAD...
MILLERSBURG...MOUNT VERNON
1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST OHIO HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
117 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...
GFS MODEL HOLDING TRUE TO ITS WORD COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN IN
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  SURFACE WAVE IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND THE INTERACTION OF WARM
MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND COOL AIR TO THE NORTH.  ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVERRUNNING SLASH
FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKING PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS.  SO WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS WITH
OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN. AS WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS THEY ARE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE AREAS. WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST
AND GO CLEAR TO SCATTERED TONIGHT.  WINDS STAY NORTHERLY BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.UPDATED SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT NEAR OH RIVER ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR AT SURFACE LAGGING A BIT
AS LOWER DEWPOINTS JUST NOW SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL OHIO.
SURFACE LOW ON FRONT OVER LWR OH VALLEY A REFLECTION OF DEEPENING
TROUGH ALOFT.

ALL MODELS EXCEPT NGM SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND PERHAPS
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TOO MUCH AND DRIVING IT TOO FAR NORTHWARD.
WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT AT SURFACE AND HIGHER THETA-E VALUES PROGGED
TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BY RUC MODEL...SEEMS AS THOUGH THE THREAT OF
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA PRIMARILY FROM ENTRANCE REGION
OF JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TNGT AND SATURDAY MORN. WITH LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE WOULD
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY FROM ANABATIC PROCESSES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TSTORMS
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SOUTH OF MFD TO AROUND CAK).

SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH BUT WITHOUT CONVECTION DO
NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS INDICATED BY
GFS. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AT DTX
BUT ACTUAL 00Z SOUNDING AT DTX ONLY 1.02 INCHES. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS WAVE MOVG E AT 40 KTS AND SHOULD BE EAST OF FCST AREA SAT
MORN. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FCST AREA BY LATE MORN OR EARLY
AFTRN AND WILL ADJUST GRID GRAPHICS AND FCST TO SHOW LOWER POP IN
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...WILL RESTRICT THUNDER CHANCES TO FAR SOUTH
AND EAST COUNTIES. MIN TEMP FCST LOOKS OK TNGT EXCEPT WILL TWEAK
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR LAKE ERIE. UPDATE AROUND 940 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED
NORTH FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SFC DEW POINTS HAVE YET TO DECREASE. WILL
HAVE CHC/SLGT CHC TSTMS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
THESE SHOWERS TO BE DIURNAL. THEN SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE ENE ALONG
FRONT MOVING TO AROUND NRN KY BY SAT MORNING. BRING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS ON TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH GFS LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND LITTLE DEEPER
COMPARED TO NAM. STILL WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIKELY WITH CHC
TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY.
MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS TOMORROW BUT BELIEVE SHOULD BE BELOW ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NERN U.S. BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS S/W MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH EJECTS
OUT TO THE NE EARLY IN PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THEN THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AT THE
END. HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN COLD FRONT DROPS INTO UPPER LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY...BECOMING
STATIONARY THOUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. WILL CARRY CHC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMALS...NOTHING TOO EXTREME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY LOW TO
MID 80S AND LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...WCR
LONG TERM...WCR
AVIATION...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-220830-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
418 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LOMBARDY