Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
740 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NRN INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN LAKES MOVES EAST. THE 21Z RUC
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST PCPN MAY NOT REACH CAK/YNG UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD PCPN SPREADING EAST FROM
TOL/FDY INTO CLE THEN ERI THIS EVENING. WL BRING ALL SITES TO IFR
OVERNIGHT...THEN RISE BACK TO VFR BY TRMW AFTN BEHIND THE VORT. THE
BIG THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH A DEEP
WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCHES.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ALSO LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER STORM. THE STORMS
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPRAOCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU FRI NGT)...

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ERIE LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TEENS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WITH LAKE ERIE
WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AS WELL...THIS MAY HELP INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WITH THIS VERY MOIST
AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES PER HALF
HOUR HAVE RECENTLY BEEN MEASURED IN LAKE COUNTY. THESE LOW TOP WARM
RAIN LOW CENTROID TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4.5 KM IS QUITE HIGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE. CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 0-6
KM IS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH IS INHIBITING STORM ORGANIZATION BUT
LIGHTNING FLASH RATES ARE INCREASING.  BY THIS EVENING THE DEEP
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE
BETTER WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGH CATAGORICAL
RAIN POPS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A LINGER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTM IN THE
MORNING BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT THRU THU)...

VERY WARM SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEAK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES ACCORDING THE MID RANGE ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AND THE
SINGLE RUN THE ECMWF. LATE IN THE WEEK(THU) THE NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO CHANGE AS A WEAK STORT WAVES DIGS SLIGHTLY
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE REGION AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST.  CONVECTION AROUND AND E OF KCLE WILL CONT
TO MOVE ENE THIS AFT.  BIG QUESTION IS WHEN...WHERE AND IF MORE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO THE W AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.  CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER
NRN OH AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP LIMIT NEW DEVELOPMENT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.  HOWEVER...DO EXPECT NEW CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER ERN
IN WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.  IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES FORM IT WILL
TRACK E ACROSS AND NEAR TAF SITES AFT 21Z.  THUS...MOST SITES WILL
GET A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS OF TSRA.  STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG FAR
ENUF S TONIGHT TO CAUSE LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVE.  WILL
FORECAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOST AREAS AFT 04Z.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY

&&

SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...MRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
912 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281315-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
912 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE
COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE WILL BE LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BUT A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES AROUND 100.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.