Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...SW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL TX THIS AM TRIGGERED
TSTMS OVER COASTAL BEND WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER KENEDY
COUNTY. BRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 2 INCH PW AND HIGH CAPE WITH NO
CAP...SO ALTHOUGH VORT MAX IS EXITING THE REGION WILL CARRY SCHC
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANOTHER MINOR
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH S TX MON WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW
REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN. THIS PATTERN
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SEABREEZE TRIGGERING
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION. RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DRY FCST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND. MOS TEMPS SEEM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  92  77  90  76 /  10  20  20  30  10
HARLINGEN            76  96  76  93  74 /  10  20  20  30  10
MCALLEN              78  97  77  97  75 /  10  20  20  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  98  78 101  77 /  10  10  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  88  78  87  77 /  10  20  20  30  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

55/66/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

TXZ248>257-291100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM
40 TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER PRIMARILY BROOKS...JIM HOGG AND
KENEDY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BROOKS...JIM HOGG AND KENEDY
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TOMASELLI