Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSES SHOW A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A COASTAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW
DRIFTING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. 02/12Z SOUNDING FROM
BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH VERY WEAK
WIND PROFILE THROUGH 300 MB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 03/00Z.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THAT TIME AND ANY
HEATING TODAY SHOULD MANIFEST ITSELF IN WARM CORE TYPE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT THE
UPPER LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A DRYING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO NORMALS ON THE TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE PRECIP WATER IS 1.94 AND
THE K-INDEX IS 36. WILL NOT CHANGE POPS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH IF
THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN MIGHT INCREASE POPS
FOR TONIGHT.  PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.  NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LIGHTNING. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE MOVES EAST...A
FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTLINE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WAVE WATCH III WIND AND
SWELL GUIDANCE LOOKS OK AND WILL GO WITH THIS GENERAL TREND
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE CWF.
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUING CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE AREA TAF
SET. WILL GO WITH LOWER CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...65
MARINE/AVIATION...52
MESO...MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

TXZ248>257-030000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
515 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING. ACCORDINGLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
PRODUCE DRY AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IF FLOODING RAINS DEVELOP TODAY
OR THIS EVENING.

SPEECE