Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 021235
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
734 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

TXC047-021315-
BROOKS TX-
734 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BROOKS COUNTY...

AT 725 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES 
PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RACHAL AND 
ENCINO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
BROWNSVILLE AT 1 800 303 3822.

LAT...LON 2679 9827 2679 9800 2700 9800 2694 9826

$$

VANSPEYBROECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONTINUED MONITORING OF OVERALL SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF DISCS FROM HPC...WILL MAINTAIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWA.
OVERALL CELL TRENDS SHOW CONTINUED SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHILE THE NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONGER PVA BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BY THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WAVE WATCH III
WIND AND SWELL GUIDANCE LOOKS OK AND WILL GO WITH THIS GENERAL TREND
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE CWF.
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUING CONVECTION OVER BROOKS...KENEDY AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES IS MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE GREATEST IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS WILL BE TO THE MFE AREA WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CLOSEST.  WILL INCLUDE EARLIER TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
MFE TAF AND WILL MENTION THEM LATER TODAY FOR THE HRL AND BRO
AREAS.  WILL GO WITH LOWER CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  73  89  73  91 /  70  20  10  00  00
BROWNSVILLE          87  71  91  71  93 /  70  20  10  00  00
HARLINGEN            87  70  92  70  94 /  70  20  10  00  00
MCALLEN              91  72  95  72  98 /  70  20  10  00  00
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  72  97  72  99 /  70  20  10  00  00
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  75  86  76  87 /  70  20  10  00  00
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...63
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...60

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

TXZ248>257-030000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
515 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING. ACCORDINGLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
PRODUCE DRY AND HOT WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IF FLOODING RAINS DEVELOP TODAY
OR THIS EVENING.

SPEECE