Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED SEQUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES.  FIRST
COLDFRONT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING...LOWERING DEWPOINTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT
EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WWD.  ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE TROUBLE SURVIVING ON THE PLAINS
EXCEPT WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES EAST OF LIMON...AKRON...AND
STERLING...UNLESS SIGNFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN MOVE WEST.
SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WITH CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J RANGE.  SPC SWODY1 LOOKED REASONABLE.  CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DIE OVER HIR TRRN THIS EVNG...AND LINGER ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  TOMORROW THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WERE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RULE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED ARND MIDDAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.  ALONG WITH
THE NEXT FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE AND A UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTING NERN CO.  SO AM KEEPING POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
PALMER DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY.  IT LOOKS TOO COOL AND STABLE IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WILL ONLY MENTION RW FROM WELD COUNTY TO SEDGWICK
COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO.  MEANWHILE A CDFNT
CURRENTLY OVER NRN WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
AND BE ALONG THE CO-WY BORDER BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN.  HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH READINGS SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTN EXCEPT OVER
SRN AREAS WHERE FNT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID AFTN.  TEMPS BY MID TO
LATE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE CO-WY
BORDER WITH 80S OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA.  TRICKY PART OF THE FCST IS
HOW THIS FNT WILL AFFECT TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTN.  INITIAL FNT COULD
STABILIZE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF NERN CO THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
BEST CHC OF TSTMS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE EXTENDING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY ALONG FNTL BNDRY.  BY THIS
EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER NERN CO BEHIND
FNTL BNDRY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY.  ALTHOUGH BEST MID LEVEL QG
ASCENT WILL STAY NORTH OF AREA ACROSS WY BOTH WRF AND GFS SHOW
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PTRN OVER NERN CO TONIGHT. THUS
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS NERN
CO.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS
OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRI NGT-SUN...MDLS MOVE UPR TROF OVER GRT
PLAINS AND CNTRL MIDWEST AS UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WRN U.S.
WILL LEAVE LINGERING SCT RAIN SHWRS ACRS AREA ON FRI NGT AND THEN
GRDLY DIMINISH SHWRS DURING ERLY MRNG SAT AS THEY MOVE TO S.  AMS
BCMS STABILIZED BY FRONTAL INVERSION ON FRI EVE...SO WILL MENTION
NO TSTMS.  WILL GNLY FAVOR GFS SOLUTION ON SAT WHICH ENDS PCPN...
CLEARS SKIES AND WARMS TEMPS FASTER THAN NAM.  DRY AND WRMG TREND
WILL CONT ON SUN AS AMS BCMS MORE SUBSIDNT.  GFS MOS TEMPS LUK TO
BE ON TRACK...SO WILL MAKE ONLY SML ADJUSTMENTS.

IN EXTENDED PRD...MON-THU...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR WRN U.S. ALG
WITH NWLY FLO ALF ACRS CNTRL RCKYS.  AMS WILL RMN DRY AND SUBSIDENT
BUT GFS SHWS WK SHT WVS IN FLO ALF AND A BRF RETURN TO SUM APPARENT
MONSOONAL MSTR BY WED AND THU.  TEMPS WILL BE ARND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GLANCY/GARD...WFO BOULDER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
444 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             2 W BYERS               39.71N 104.26W
08/31/2006  E0.75 INCH       ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL MOSTLY PEA AND MARBLE SIZE

&&

BENTON

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