Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED SEQUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES.  FIRST
COLDFRONT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING...LOWERING DEWPOINTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT
EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT WWD.  ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE TROUBLE SURVIVING ON THE PLAINS
EXCEPT WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES EAST OF LIMON...AKRON...AND
STERLING...UNLESS SIGNFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN MOVE WEST.
SOUNDINGS ON THE PLAINS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WITH CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J RANGE.  SPC SWODY1 LOOKED REASONABLE.  CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DIE OVER HIR TRRN THIS EVNG...AND LINGER ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  TOMORROW THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WERE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RULE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED ARND MIDDAY...RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.  ALONG WITH
THE NEXT FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING UPSLOPE AND A UPPER TROUGH
IMPACTING NERN CO.  SO AM KEEPING POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
PALMER DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY.  IT LOOKS TOO COOL AND STABLE IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WILL ONLY MENTION RW FROM WELD COUNTY TO SEDGWICK
COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO.  MEANWHILE A CDFNT
CURRENTLY OVER NRN WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
AND BE ALONG THE CO-WY BORDER BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN.  HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH READINGS SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTN EXCEPT OVER
SRN AREAS WHERE FNT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MID AFTN.  TEMPS BY MID TO
LATE AFTN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE CO-WY
BORDER WITH 80S OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA.  TRICKY PART OF THE FCST IS
HOW THIS FNT WILL AFFECT TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTN.  INITIAL FNT COULD
STABILIZE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF NERN CO THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
BEST CHC OF TSTMS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE EXTENDING INTO LINCOLN COUNTY ALONG FNTL BNDRY.  BY THIS
EVENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER NERN CO BEHIND
FNTL BNDRY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY.  ALTHOUGH BEST MID LEVEL QG
ASCENT WILL STAY NORTH OF AREA ACROSS WY BOTH WRF AND GFS SHOW
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PTRN OVER NERN CO TONIGHT. THUS
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS NERN
CO.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS
OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRI NGT-SUN...MDLS MOVE UPR TROF OVER GRT
PLAINS AND CNTRL MIDWEST AS UPR RDG BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WRN U.S.
WILL LEAVE LINGERING SCT RAIN SHWRS ACRS AREA ON FRI NGT AND THEN
GRDLY DIMINISH SHWRS DURING ERLY MRNG SAT AS THEY MOVE TO S.  AMS
BCMS STABILIZED BY FRONTAL INVERSION ON FRI EVE...SO WILL MENTION
NO TSTMS.  WILL GNLY FAVOR GFS SOLUTION ON SAT WHICH ENDS PCPN...
CLEARS SKIES AND WARMS TEMPS FASTER THAN NAM.  DRY AND WRMG TREND
WILL CONT ON SUN AS AMS BCMS MORE SUBSIDNT.  GFS MOS TEMPS LUK TO
BE ON TRACK...SO WILL MAKE ONLY SML ADJUSTMENTS.

IN EXTENDED PRD...MON-THU...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR WRN U.S. ALG
WITH NWLY FLO ALF ACRS CNTRL RCKYS.  AMS WILL RMN DRY AND SUBSIDENT
BUT GFS SHWS WK SHT WVS IN FLO ALF AND A BRF RETURN TO SUM APPARENT
MONSOONAL MSTR BY WED AND THU.  TEMPS WILL BE ARND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GLANCY/GARD...WFO BOULDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1033 AM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

COZ030>051-011200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1033 AM MDT THU AUG 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...
BRINGING SOME BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND INITIALLY FLUSHING MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DELAYED ON THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.  WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS WINDS TURN EAST ON THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE PLAINS AND INCREASE THIS
EVENING.   A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING THE AREA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...
LINGERING ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL STABILIZE THE
AIR MASS AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BECOME ENTRAINED
UNDER THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING.

GLANCY/GARD...WFO BOULDER