Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY).
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS LITTLE TO NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY. SOME
DISCREPANCY DOES LIE WITHIN MAV GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
COOL ESPECIALLY SINCE THICKNESS VALUES SEEM TO BE NEAR YESTERDAY/S
READINGS WHEN WE HAD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S. WITH
THAT SAID HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL START THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS AS YESTERDAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS EVIDENT FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHEAST TO MONTGOMERY...SO BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S IN URBAN AREAS AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY
FOG AND HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINED.

FRIDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID 90S). WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT AT THIS POINT...VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AREAS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARISE AS THE GFS HURRIES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUCH AS
THE NOGAPS...GEM...AND UKMET SHOW A SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION.
NOT QUITE SURE EXACTLY WHAT THE GFS IS KEYING ON TO MAKE THE
WEEKEND RAIN FREE AND PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED IT FOR NOW AND GONE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. BELIEVE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CWA PROVIDING A NICE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION AROUND OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

KNS/99

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD AS TROF AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF
ALABAMA.  BELIEVE GFS IS UNDER FORECASTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL...
MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GFS MOS
NUMBERS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AS
THIS AREA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
VALUES FOR LATE JUNE AND STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 20Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 2 MILES IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. PREVAILING WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  68  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
ANNISTON    97  70  93  71 /  20  20  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  98  73  94  72 /  20  20  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  98  71  94  72 /  20  20  30  20
CALERA      98  71  94  70 /  20  20  30  20
AUBURN      98  70  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  98  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
TROY        98  71  96  70 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-231704-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 3 PM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. THE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF I-65...WITH THE FEWEST STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

ALZ037-038-222030-
CHAMBERS-TALLAPOOSA-
255 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TALLAPOOSA AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMP HILL. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR DADEVILLE AND CAMP
HILL THROUGH 330 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90