Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT)

QUICKLY APPROACHING 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL AREAS
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...IN FACT, BHM HAS OFFICIALLY REACHED THE
CENTURY MARK. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFERING SOME RELIEF
BUT NOT MUCH COVERAGE WISE. CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS AN EASTERN CONUS TROF STARTS SHAPING UP. BETTER MOISTURE
AND WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTH AND AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH...ON
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY)

AS UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY...IT WILL PUSH
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE TOLERABLE.

SOME NOTICEABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS ARE
WARRANTED WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES IN THE 18Z PACKAGE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE CHANCES THAT ANY
TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED ARE SLIM AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT THIS
TIME. CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE DEVELOPED BY AROUND THE 18Z ISSUANCE
TIME...WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3500FT. THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT
TO 6K OR 7K FEET BY 21Z. SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR CONCERNS JUST 24 HOURS LATER. KBDI VALUES INTO THE
CRITICAL RANGE...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 30S...AND DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA THAT WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITED FACTOR...AS LIGHT WINDS OF 6
KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED DURING SUNLIGHT HOURS. CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED DURING OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

&&

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  95  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ANNISTON    70  96  71  91 /  20  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  72  95  74  90 /  20  20  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  71  92 /  20  20  20  30
CALERA      73  95  73  91 /  20  20  20  30
AUBURN      73  93  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  93 /  20  20  20  20
TROY        70  93  71  93 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

88/88/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
130 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-221835-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
130 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GROW
LARGE ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...HIGH.
MONTGOMERY...HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JONES/90

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ047-048-212315-
LEE-RUSSELL-
552 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL AND LEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 552 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR MARVYN THROUGH 615
PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ025-035-220000-
CHILTON-SHELBY-
613 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CHILTON AND SHELBY
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF CALERA.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR CALERA...WILTON...
MONTEVALLO...COLUMBIANA AND ALABASTER THROUGH 700 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
625 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ024-025-220015-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
625 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN SHELBY AND
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER VESTAVIA HILLS...DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
706 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ023-220030-
TUSCALOOSA-
706 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR NORTHPORT THROUGH 730
PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

ALZ037-043-220045-
ELMORE-TALLAPOOSA-
711 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELMORE AND
SOUTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS 35 TO
45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLASSEE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR TALLASSEE AND
ECLECTIC THROUGH 745 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IF YOU ARE
OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90