Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006

Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Binghamton, NY

July 21, 2006Oneida County, New York

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this flash flood warning at Jul 21, 2006, 4:13 AM EDT for Oneida County, New York. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2006, 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2006, 7:15 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Binghamton, NY
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Oneida County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2006-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 404 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2006-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
404 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1241 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS51 KBGM 210818
FFWBGM
NYC065-211115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT

* AT 408 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
  FLOODING IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VIENNA...
  VERONA BEACH...TRENTON FALLS...TRENTON...TABERG...SYLVAN BEACH...
  STITTVILLE...STEUBEN...ROME...REMSEN...NEW LONDON...LEE...HOLLAND
  PATENT...HINCKLEY...FORESTPORT...FLOYD...DELTA LAKE...CAMDEN...
  BOONVILLE...BLOSSVALE...BARNVELD AND ALDER CREEK.

COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WATER OVER COUNTY ROUTE 49 IN VIENNA. 
ADDITIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY 
AROUND FLORENCE AND POINT ROCK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER 
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY 6 AM. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE 2 TO 
4 INCHES.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4361 7512 4320 7512 4317 7590 4349 7586

$$
1 follow-up statement
000 
WGUS71 KBGM 211049
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

NYC065-211053-
ONEIDA NY-
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT 
A SWATH OF RAIN AVERAGING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES 
POSSIBLE FELL FROM THE SYLVAN BEACH AREA TO BOONVILLE OVERNIGHT. A 
FEW PROBLEMS WERE REPORTED WITH WATER OVER THE ROADS...NAMELY RT. 49 
IN VIENNA. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS INDICATED THAT THERE WERE NO FURTHER 
PROBLEMS...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 
THIS MORNING.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4361 7512 4320 7512 4317 7590 4349 7586

$$

JAB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 21, 4:04 AM EDT, 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 4:04 AM EDT, 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 AM FRI JUL 21 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN GTLKS AT 06Z. LEADING
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND DEEPER LIFT AHEAD OF S/WV TROF WERE TRIGGERING
CLUSTERS OF HVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN ZONES TODAY...WITH THIS FIRST ROUND
EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC FRONT THEN MEANDERS INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS/WRF AGREEING ON A POSITION ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS CNY BY
18Z. STILL HAVE UPR HGHTS FALLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF BROAD
TROF WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE PA AND SRN
TIER NY. DO EXPECT SOME ADDL TSRA IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY SO HAVE
KEPT SCT-NMRS TSRA IN THE FCST...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE
FINGER LAKES.

FRONT SUPPRESSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND
LLVL CAA. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK UL WAVES PASSING THRU THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT 00Z-12Z...BUT LOWER LVL STABILIZATION AND LACK OF SFC FOCUS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHECK ON PRECIP TONITE. THEN...MODELS ARE
OFFERING UP AN INTERESTING...AND IF TRUE...RATHER SCARY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FLOOD RAVAGED AREA.
GFS/ENSEMBLES/WRF/ECMWF INDICATE UPR TROF SHARPENING OVER THE GTLKS
TO THE TN VALLEY WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG STALLED FRONT...AND
MOVING NEWD TO EITHER COASTAL NH...OR SE NY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GFS
FASTER AND SIG WETTER THAN WRF...AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONV
FEEDBACK ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC SIGNALS FROM BOTH MODELS ARE FVRBL FOR HVY
RAIN TO SOME DEGREE. SREFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY ABOUT 10
PERCENT OF MEMBERS SHOWING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NEPA.
WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS ON TIMING SO I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO MOVE UP TO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CHC REMAINING FOR THE
NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN PLACE FOR A RAIN EVENT SAT
NITE..BUT GIVEN SUCH A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WE ARE NOT CONVINCED
OF SIGNIFICANT AND WDSPRD HVY RAIN IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WE PLAN
ON TAKING THE CONSERVATIVE ROAD THIS MORNING AS FAR AS ANY
STATEMENTS GO. WILL MENTION CHC HEAVY RAIN IN FCST...AND ADDRESS THE
PSBLTY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...THEN LET DAY SHIFT PUT IT ALL
TOGETHER WITH THE NEXT COUPLE MDL RUN TRENDS.

FOR SUNDAY...EVEN THE SLOWER WRF WOULD SHOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY...SO WILL JUST LEAVE FCST WITH A CHC SHRA IN THE EAST AND SOUTH.

BLENDED THE HARD TO BEAT FWC/MAV COMBINATION GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
-JAB
&&

.AVIATION (21/06Z TO 22/06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. THE FIRST FEW HOURS SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH AT TIMES LOWERING VSBY AND MAYBE
CIG TO MVFR. WITH THE GROUND MOISTURE MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE
COULD DROP TO IFR. DURING THE DAY VFR WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT START TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTN THEN DROPPING BACK TO LESS THAN 5 KTS
THIS EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
SLOW MVG FNTLY SYSTEM WILL BE WELL CLR OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A PROLONGED PD OF DRIER WX WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A SFC HI
BLDS IN. FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON WED AS A BROAD BUT WEAK
UPPER TROF AND SHRT WV BRINGS SOME LFT AND THE THREAT OF SHWRS.
STRUNGOUT SYSTEM IS DFCLT TO DEFINE AND TIME...ESP AT LONG RANGE SO
POPS WILL REMAIN LOW AND SPEAD OUT INTO THU. FLWD HPC GUID FOR
TEMPS. -MORFORD

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 11:32 PM EDT, 4 hours 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1132 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NYZ022-210430-
STEUBEN NY-
1132 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  WOODHULL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ADDISON AT 1150 PM EDT...
  LINDLEY AND ERWINS AT 1210 AM EDT...
  CATON AND SOUTH CORNING AT 1225 AM EDT...
  EAST CORNING AT 1230 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...ONE HALF
INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

JAB
Special weather statement, Jul 21, 1:48 AM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

PAZ038-039-210645-
BRADFORD PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
148 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 142 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  HERRICKVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STEVENSVILLE AND BRUSHVILLE AT 155 AM EDT...
  RUSHVILLE AND SILVARA AT 200 AM EDT...
  LAWTON AND RUSH AT 205 AM EDT...
  AUBURN CENTER AND BIRCHARDVILLE AT 210 AM EDT...
  ELK LAKE AT 215 AM EDT...
  DIMOCK AND SPRINGVILLE AT 220 AM EDT...
  ALFORD AT 230 AM EDT...
  HOP BOTTOM AT 235 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 21, 1:35 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMOneida4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New York, 2006Every flash flood warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.