Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1013 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
WAL AND LWX SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMS STILL POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE...BUT
LIKELY BECOMING CAPPED. CAP A LITTLE WEAKER N AND W...AS EVIDENT
BY CELL NOW NEAR CULPEPER AND MANASSAS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER PAST 15 MINUTES. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS FOR N AND
W...BUT WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP FREE AREA OVER THE SE. HAVE ALSO
CUT BACK ON SKY COVER...ESP SE...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FEW CHANGES TO UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REISSUED AFTERNOON FIRE WX FORECAST...BASED ON LATER MODEL
DATA...WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF TRANSPORT WIND DIRECTION WHICH
WERE INADVERTENTLY GENERATED INCORRECTLY WITH EARLIER ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 330 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FA ATTM (AIRMASS JUST TO WRM ALOFT).
SHORT TERM FCST GOVERNED BY WHAT HAPPENS TO TSTRM COMPLEXES NOW
DVLPNG TO THE W. MODELS NOT HANDLING THESE SYSTMS VRY WELL. XPCT
BEST CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS N AND WRN CNTYS. WILL KEEP
ISLTD POPS IN THRU MOST OF THE NITE...GIVEN THE CHC ANY OF THESE
COMPLEXES HOLDS TOGETHER AFTR MIDNITE. RIDGE KEEPS SERN CSTL AREAS
DRY. CONT RTHR HUMID WITH LOWS ONLY ARND 70.

FRNTL BNDRY APPRCHS FROM THE NW BY FRI AFTRN THEN BEGINS TO STALL.
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THESE COMPLEXES TEND TO RPDLY DSPT DRNG
ERLY AM HRS B4 FIRING UP IN THE AFTRN. THUS...WILL KEEP FRI AM DRY
BUT INCRS POPS IN THE AFTRN AS MORE COMPLEXES DVLP ALONG BNDRY.
HIGHEST POPS N & W. TMPS UP TO NR 90 ONCE AGAIN B4 CLDS ARRIVE.
HIGH CHC POPS CONT FRI NITE AND SAT. GREATEST QPF XPCTD FROM A
SBY-RIC-FVX LINE ON N & W. CUD SEE BTWN 1-3 INCHES THESE AREAS
BY LATE SAT AFTRN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PRD TO BE GOVERNED BY WHAT THE TRPLCL MSTR OFF THE SE COAST
DOES. MODELS TAKE TRPLCL MSTR TOWARDS THE SERN US COAST THIS
WKEND THEN TRACK IT NW INTO STALLED FRNTL BNDRY. HOWEVER...TDYS
SAT LOOP SHOWS THIS MSTR NRLY STNRY RTHR THAN MOVG W. SO WITH THE
UNCERTAINITY OF ITS MOVEMENT...WILL KEEP THE XTNDD FCST AS MSTLY
CLDY WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER PICT OF WHERE THE TRPCPL
MSTR GOES. OTW...SERIES OF S/WS RIDING ALONG THE BNDRY KEEPS AXIS
OF HVYST QPF N & W OF FA.

AVIATION...
VFR WITH CHC OF ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. HZY
CONDITIONS AT SBY BRINGING TWR VSBY TO 3-4 MILES, BUT 6+ AT THE SFC.
FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR VSBY PSBL FOR EARLY AM FRI. PREFRONTAL TROF AHEAD
OF APPRCHNG COLD FRONT ON FRI MRNG MAY BRING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  XPCT INCREASING CHC OF TSTMS FOR FRI AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT
NEARS REGION.

MARINE...
WL MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA FOR WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
RAISE FLAGS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REILLY
MARINE...CURRY
FIRE WEATHER...REILLY/LYNCH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VAZ060-061-230615-
CUMBERLAND VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-
147 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY...

AT 146 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF HAMPDEN SYDNEY...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF RED HOUSE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR TUGGLE...AND...KINGSVILLE AT 200 AM EDT...
REEDS...AND...FARMVILLE AT 210 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

CULLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

MDZ021-230700-
DORCHESTER MD-
214 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EASTON TO COVE
POINT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR
CAMBRIDGE AROUND 245 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

CULLEN