Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING OVER THE GRTLKS. VORT LOBE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NOW PIVOTING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH...MOVING
E INTO KY. AT SFC...LAPS AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW AREA OF INSTABILITY
OVER CENTRAL NC...EXTENDING NWD INTO S CENTRAL VA. THESE AREAS
HAVE HAD BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SFC OBS GENERALLY AROUND 80
TEMP...65 DEWPT. RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PAST
HOUR OVER THE FA.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...AND SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AND WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH UPPER VORT JUST BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND
7 PM OVER WESTERN HALF OF FA...AND MAINLY AFTER 8 PM ERN
SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS AREA. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND
WINDS...THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS...MAINLY
OVER SCNTRL VA AND NE NC...BUT AS SPC POINTS OUT IN
DISCUSSION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY ROTATING STORMS.

FRONT PUSHES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD DRY OUT FROM W TO
E. POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS...FRI AFTERNOON...GIVEN TROF AXIS EXTENDING OUTWARD OVER
THE AREA...FROM GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...AND ASSOC COLD POOL. BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DRIFT SE...AND START
TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WAA AND LIFT ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. SUN LOOKS UNSETTLED AS WELL...AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC
CYCLONE PROGGED TO DRIFT EVEN CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC FEATURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WED...WHEN WE MAY FINALLY SEE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW SHIFT E. OF COURSE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING MOVEMENT OF THESE UPPER CUTOFF FEATURES...SO FCAST
UNCERTAINTY GREATER THAN AVERAGE. BOTTOM LINE...AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP UP WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR SCA. COLD FRONT
WL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THE WATERS AND EXITS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING....SOMETIME BEFORE 12Z...SCA CONDS WL GO AWAY SOON
AFTERWARDS. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WL PROGRESS FROM E-SE TO
W-SW BEFORE SWITCHING AGAIN TO SE AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTEM LATER INTO
THE WEEKEND...SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-656-658 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...REILLY
LONG TERM...REILLY
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...LYNCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
524 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656-658-670-MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-120930-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC FROM
20 TO 40 NM-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
524 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ANZ633-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>098-120930-
CURRITUCK SOUND-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-
CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
524 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CURRITUCK
SOUND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SEE SPSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BROWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
630 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

VAZ080-081-087-088-092-112300-
DINWIDDIE VA-GREENSVILLE VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUSSEX
VA-
630 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DISPUTANTA TO
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAHLIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...DISPUTANTA AROUND 640 PM EDT...
BOYKINS AROUND 645 PM EDT...WAVERLY AROUND 655 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

44

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