Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
932 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND REFRESH
WORDING. ERNESTO SET TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF ILM IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FAR OUTER RAIN BANDS/AREAS PUSHING THROUGH NE NC
AND INTO SOUTHERN TIER VA COUNTIES ATTM. RAINFALL RATES WITHIN
THESE BANDS STARTING TO APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR SO FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE INCREASING FROM HERE ON IN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF 1 95 CORRIDOR. TORNADO THREAT LOW ATTM BUT WILL BE
INCREASING DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HEAVIER BANDS ROTATE IN
AHEAD OF ERNESTO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 416 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006)

SHORT TERM...ERNESTO AND ITS REMANANTS DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATL AS OF 4 PM SHOWS THAT TS ERNESTO
HAS STRENGTHENED QUITE A BIT...MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70
MPH. LATEST TPC/NHC TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR NC/SC BORDER BETWN 8PM
AND MIDNGT...WITH THE STORM TRACKING UP THRU NC OVERNGT INTO FRI
MRNG. WRF MODEL HAS BEEN DISREGARDED THIS CYCLE AS IT IS THE
EXTREME OUTLIER/DISSIPATES ANY EVIDENCE OF ERNESTO BY FRI NGT.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS (ALTHOUGH W/ TPC TRACK WHICH IS A BIT
TO THE WEST OF GFS). LOW LVL CONV INCREASES OVERNGT FROM S TO N
AND LATEST MSAS SHOWS MSLP VALUES DECRSG IN RESPONSE TO ERNESTOS
APPROACH. FOR TONIGHT...THINK SFC HIGH ACRS NY STATE/NEW ENGLAND
WILL LIMIT QPF SOMEWHAT ACRS FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
THEREFORE BACKED OFF OF HVY RAIN WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT UP
THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
STORM STRUCTURE ACRS NC AND SE VA ON RADAR...AND HAVE THUNDER
MENTION AND HVY RAIN ALL NIGHT ACRS SRN ZONES. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISO SVR ACRS SRN
ZONES MAINLY E OF I-95 AND S OF I-64. IN ANY EVENT ALL AREAS WILL
SEE HVY RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.

FRI...IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO...AHVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVSRY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 31 MPH OR GREATER ACRS HAMPTON
ROADS/NE NC. FLASH FLOOD WATCH (FFA) CONTINUES ALL AREAS...FOR
GNRLY 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NOW THRU FRI NGT...GFS DEPICTS PRC WTRS
AROUND 2.5 INCHES. BESIDES WIND AND HVY RAIN WILL HAVE THREAT FOR
ISO TORNADOES E OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO ACRS RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT...WITH
BEST CHC BEING SE ZONES. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPRCH
40KTS...AND IF ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER (NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT) OCCUR CONDS MAY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE. SLOWED DOWN THE
END OF PRECIP A BIT SO HAVE CAT POPS THRU 6PM ALL ZONES. FOR TEMPS
WENT COOLEST ACRS NW BUT STILL ABOVE MAV/MET GDNC AS THAT ASSUMES
A FARTHER EAST TRACK AND THUS MORE NLY FLOW.

FRI NGT...CONTINUE W/ FFA SRN/CNTRL ZONES NRN ZONES THRU 8PM...AND
NRN ZONES THRU 2AM SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO BEGIN TO
SCATTER PRECIP OUT FROM RICHMOND AND SOUTH DURING
EVENG...LINGERING LIKELY POPS FARTHER NORTH.

SAT...SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF AKQ CWA BY SAT MRNG SO EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE DRYING...FOLLOWED WARMER AND DRIER MAV GDNC HERE
ALTHOUGH WITH UNCRETAINTY AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES HAVE LEFT
IN 30% FOR AFTN TSTMS.

LONG TERM/SAT NGT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL IN WAKE OF ERNESTO
HAVE A SLOW MOVING UPR LOW ACRS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY TRACKING TWDS
THE EAST BY MON/TUE. HAVE CARRIED 30% POPS FOR AFTN/EVENG SUN/MON.
CONSENSUS FCST SHOWS FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR THE REGION TUE/ERLY WED SO
HAVE POPS A BIT HIGHER THEN. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE WED
INTO THU WITH DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER WX THEN.

MARINE..
GALE WRNGS UP FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS THRU FRI EVE. SEAS
BLDG TO BTWN 10-15FT...HIGHEST NRN CSTL WTRS. PROLONGED PRD
OF ERLY WNDS RESULTS IN MINOR CSTL FLOODING ALONG WITH HIGH SURF
POTENTIAL ALONG MD/VA ERN SHORE AREAS. MINOR CSTL FLOODING PSBL
ALONG DORCHESTER / SOMERSET CNTY MD AREAS OF CHES BAY.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ALL SITES...OCCASIONAL IFR LEVELS AT ECG. IFR/MVFR VSBYS
IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE ENE AS ERNESTO APPROACHES
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE AT ORF/PHF/ECG AFTER 12Z. .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ021>025 UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MDZ025 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     PM FRIDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ048-049-062>064-072>078-085-099 UNTIL
     2 AM SATURDAY.
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ060-061-065>071-079>084-086>098-100
     UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ092>098 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VAZ098>100 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630-631 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ633 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN