Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ONLY SUBTLE
 DIFFERENCES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND BEGIN COLD ADVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. COLD AIR SHOULD BE SUPPLIED INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...THIS WILL ALLOW A PERFECT SET UP
FOR MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED IN ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE BERING SEA TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THEN NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE THE INTERIOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF MUCH
NEEDED SNOWFALL WITH THE COLD ADVECTION.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST COAST FROM NEAR UNALAKLEET TO
KOTZEBUE ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE ARCTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. WITH 850
TEMPERATURES BEING 8 TO 10 BELOW SAT NIGHT...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CF FEB 06