Blizzard Watch 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
618 AM AST SAT FEB 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...MUCH ACTION WITH FAST MOVER RUNNING UP ALASKAS WEST
COAST TODAY. FORTUNATELY ETA AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ISSUES HERE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH. USUAL WEST COAST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT 213
WHICH IS TOO CLOSE TO THE LOWS CENTER) WILL HAVE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TODAY. HEAVIEST SNOW IS POISED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE...ROUGHLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY
WESTWARD. IN THESE AREAS A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING AND
UPSLOPE WILL BE COMBINED.

A COLD ADVECTION CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL THEN RUSH IN SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE FAST FLOW ALOFT COMING OFF THE DATA-POOR NORTH
PACIFIC MEANS THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ALFOT...AND THUS THE
TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WILL BE VERY TOUGH. SO
HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE GENERIC SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FORECAST
ACROSS BROAD AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ONE OTHER ISSUE TO CONSIDER LATER TODAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ217-AKZ218-
AKZ219.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

ES FEB 06