Wind Chill Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
140 PM AST TUE FEB 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR APPROACH TO THE INCOMING WEST
COAST STORM ON WED AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN THE ETA AND THAT SEEMS
TO BE CORRECT LOOKING AT THE 18Z INITIALIZATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE
EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS WILL TAKE THE FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH IT AND SPILL THE COLDER UPPER LEVEL AIR INTO WESTERN
CANADA.

AS THE INCOMING STORM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DECENT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN AND THE
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE WINDS TO IMPACT MOST OF THE WEST COAST
ZONES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THESE AREAS WILL SEE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AS THE RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND THE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA DEVELOPS.
THERE SHOULD BE NO MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THIS LOW IS FAIRLY WELL
CUT OFF FROM THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HAS DECENT COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH FROM ITS ORIGIN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG MANY OF THE WEST COAST ZONES
RESULTS FROM THE STORM SLAMMING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND THEN THE RIDGE STALLING IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE
LOW WILL BE UNABLE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN OUT IN FAR EAST RUSSIA. THE ENERGY EVENTUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WHERE A SUBSEQUENT LOW DEVELOPS.

PRESENTLY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF SNOW WILL
HIT THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS LOW WILL NOT POSSESS THE WARM AIR FROM
THE SOUTH BUT ONLY A MARITIME MODIFIED AIRMASS THAT WILL STILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COLD IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TOO COLD TO PROVIDE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ215.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ217-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ211.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF FEB 06