Gale Warning 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
258 PM AST MON FEB 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TERM AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT EVENT WILL HIT
THE WEST COAST BY MID WEEK.

500MB HEIGHT PATTERN HAS A DIFFUSE CLOSED TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH AN OPEN WAVE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
ROUGHLY ALONG 180...AND THEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE COOLING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD 500MB LOW NOW COVERING THE MAINLAND...12Z
RAOBS IN WESTERN ALASKA FROM BETHEL UP THROUGH BARROW ALL HAD
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
ARCTIC AIR. ALL MAJOR FEATURES ARE VERTICALLY STACKED...SO
SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY MUCH LIKE 500MB PATTERN. OPEN WAVE RIDGE
AXIS IN THE BERING SEA AS WELL AS COLD ADVECTION DOWN ALASKAS
WEST COAST HELP MAKE THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE
RIDGE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE CYCLONE NOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR A
BLIZZARD TO THE WEST COAST STARTING WED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON BASIC SCENARIO.

WEST COAST...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS COMBINED
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ARE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES IN SEVERAL ZONES FOR
TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA AND THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT COLLAPSES. THEN WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WED AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. THE POTENTIAL
BLIZZARD MAKER IS AN OCCLUDED FRONT SO DO NOT EXPECT WARM
ADVECTION TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THREAT OF ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR RAIN...THE THREAT WILL BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AS THE OCCLUSION MOVES INLAND TO
THE EAST AND SNOW TAPERS OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ARCTIC COAST...PATCHY FLURRIES AND FOG IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT
WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. THE STORM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TURN WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
EASTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT
BECOME EXTREME...LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WITH A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW BUT NO GOOD CHANCE FOR A BLIZZARD. ONLY THE
EXTREME WESTERN END OF THE ARCTIC COAST HAS A CHANCE FOR NEW SNOW
WITH THIS STORM.

INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGHS ALOFT AND THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH SNOW TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOESNT SHOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACCUMULATION AND
SOME AREAS MAY GET NO SNOW AT ALL. SOME COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN AREAS THAT LOSE THEIR CEILINGS AS THE COLD
850MB TEMPERATURES NOW ALONG ALASKAS WEST COAST PROGRESS EAST.
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEDNESDAYS WEST COAST STORM WILL GIVE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR TAME CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

ES FEB 06