High Wind Watch 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM ADT SAT OCT 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS AS WE MOVE INTO
A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND HIGH ENERGY PATTERN BY SUN AND CONTINUES
INTO TUE. STRONG SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SUN AND BECOME VERY
STRONG MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG CHINOOK OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE MON-TUE AND VERY STRONG EAST FLOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
SUN-MON.

THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS IT BUILDS THE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER EASTERN ALASKA ON SUN STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMF AND HAS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WORKING TO
BUILD THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO INITIALIZES THE SURFACE HIGH AND ITS
PERIPHERAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/THERMAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF
THE ARCTIC COAST MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS HOLD THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR NEAR THE COAST MUCH LONGER THAN THE NAM WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE STRONG EAST
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IT IN AT THE SURFACE UNDER THE MARINE INVERSION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...
EAST WINDS OF 40+ KT SUNDAY AND UP TO 50 KT MON ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST SHOULD PUSH WATER OFFSHORE DUE TO RIGHTWARD FORCING AND
COASTAL ICE SHOULD PREVENT BEACH EROSION BARROW TO PRUDHOE BAY.
MON WILL BE THE FIRST STORM FORCE WINDS IN A LONG TIME IN ARCTIC
WATERS AND COMBINED WITH LARGE ICE FREE AREA WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY
SEAS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. MARINERS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.

SHISHMAREF COULD RECEIVE NORTHWEST WINDS 35KT WITH LONG FETCH AND
HEAVY SEAS ON TUE-WED WHICH WOULD CAUSE PROBLEMS, BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME RANGE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON
DELTA SAT AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS AND A TIGHT AREA OF WINDS 25 KT NEAR THE LOW
CENTER.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO DEADHORSE THEN EAST
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
BEFORE IT MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
COAST IS BUILDING SOUTH AND INCREASING THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS 40KT SUN AND
UP TO 50 KT ON MON BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
WINDS DECREASE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A STRONG WIND EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE ARCTIC COAST AND MAY PRODUCE LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEPENDING ON SNOW CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE.

A 1008 MB LOW NEAR KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
SUN MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO BETTLES TO BETHEL
WILL MOVE TO POINT LAY-AMBLER-BETHEL TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
WEST OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THIS LOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD WEST THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SNOW
WHEN THIS FEATURE OVERRIDES THE ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE ARCTIC
SLOPE.

A VERY STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA MON AS A 959 MB LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
OVER ALL OF ALASKA MONDAY INCLUDING A STRONG CHINOOK OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE ON MON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB OCT 06